Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the unlikely event that there is no further improvement in the pace of vaccinations, the US is on track to provide the equivalent of one dose to 24% of its population and the UK could reach 40%. Deliveries from Pfizer and Moderna are supposed to ramp up from April onwards, and Canada is set to receive enough doses to fully vaccinate its population by September. Progress could be faster if Health Canada approves the other two vaccines currently under review, from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Even if those two are approved, however, there is little chance of more meaningful progress until the second quarter. This suggests that many coronavirus-related restrictions will remain in place until at least May. Nevertheless, with coronavirus infections dropping back sharply in the past two weeks, there is still scope for GDP to start rising again from February, as some of the tightest restrictions are gradually eased.
Global State of Play, 28th January, 0800 GMT and 1600 GMT. In the first of our regular briefings of the year, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing will lead a discussion about the economic impact of vaccination programmes, another US fiscal stimulus package and fresh lockdowns in China.
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