There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in Australia has actually fallen. Meanwhile changes by APRA, which limit Australian banks’ ability to provide capital to their New Zealand subsidiaries, increase the potential risks from higher capital requirements in New Zealand. That raises the likelihood that the RBNZ will water down the capital requirements before implementation.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services