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Capital Daily

China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate

With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond yields and a weakening of its exchange rate.

18 January 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)

OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year.

18 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am

The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But current account deficits have become an increasing cause for concern in parts of Emerging Europe (Hungary, Poland and Romania) and Latin America (Colombia and Chile). Drop-In: Join Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson and Jason Tuvey, head of our Turkey coverage, shortly after this Thursday’s CBRT meeting for a discussion about Jason’s new report on economic policy-making in Turkey, the impact of the lira’s collapse and brewing macro risks this Thursday 20th January at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

European Commercial Property Update

ECB rate hike unlikely to move the needle for property

While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021.

18 January 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems

The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher inflation and growing fiscal and banking sector risks. Drop-In: Jason will be discussing Turkey's mounting economic risks in a 20-minute online session on Thursday at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

UK Data Response

Labour Market (Nov./Dec.)

The labour market appears to have tightened after the end of the furlough scheme and at the start of the Omicron wave. So even though real wages are now falling and will decline further, we still expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% on 3rd February and to 1.25% by December.

18 January 2022

Japan Economics Update

BoJ unlikely to lift interest rates anytime soon

The Bank of Japan today upgraded its assessment of inflation risks to “broadly balanced” for the first time since 2014. However, it reiterated its pledge to keep expanding the monetary base until inflation exceeds 2% and also signaled that it will keep interest rates low. With inflation set to fall well short of the BoJ’s 2% target for the foreseeable future, the Bank won’t be able to tighten policy.

18 January 2022

Canada Data Response

Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4)

The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys suggest the upside risks to inflation over the next couple of years have increased, and raise the chance that the Bank will hike as soon as next week.

17 January 2022

Capital Daily

More thoughts on developments under the hood of the NASDAQ

Although the prices of a growing number of shares in the NASDAQ 100 have been floundering recently, we are still not convinced that this heralds an imminent collapse in the index.

17 January 2022

Nordic & Swiss Chart Book

Riksbank to have to change tack

The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in the other direction.

17 January 2022

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