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Global Economics Update

Global PMIs flattening off at high levels

The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the boil. Even so, with supply unable to keep up with demand, price pressures show little sign of abating.

2 August 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe

June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry rebounded sharply and manufacturing recoveries continue strongly in most of Emerging Europe. Supply disruptions are continuing to exert upward pressure on prices in the latter. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

2 August 2021

Capital Daily

We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere

We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere.

2 August 2021

US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.)

The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that supplier delivery times and the accompanying upward pressure on prices may have peaked. But we suspect it will be a long time before supply constraints ease meaningfully.

2 August 2021

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to weaker metals demand

China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices.

"Due to wider interest, this Update is also being sent to clients of our Metals Service"
China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

2 August 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s recovery is likely to continue to lag behind other major EMs.

2 August 2021

Japan Economics Update

What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan?

With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would shut down industry. And with households and firms now better prepared to deal with virus restrictions, it seems likely that GDP wouldn’t revisit last year’s lows.  

2 August 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (July)

The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing demand softened in Russia but strengthened in Turkey. The recent rise in new virus cases in the latter is a concern.

2 August 2021

UK Housing Market Outlook

House price growth to cool but not collapse

There are already signs that the end of the stamp duty holiday will take some heat out of the housing market, with house price inflation set to cool from 10% to 7% by the end of the year. But as we think that the tax break was just one of several factors behind the current boom, we expect house price inflation to cool rather than collapse. Remarkably limited damage to the labour market from the recession, and low and declining mortgage rates mean that house prices are likely to rise by about 3% y/y in both 2022 and 2023, stronger than expected by the consensus.

2 August 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed.

2 August 2021

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