China’s economy slowed in October, driven by weaker services sector activity. And the rebound in the trade-weighted exchange rate looks to have weighed on exports, which contracted in y/y terms. We think exports will start rising again soon. Still, the continued drag from the property sector as well as a fading fiscal tailwind will keep economic growth in the region of just 3% y/y.
Field Research
Growth weak but stable
Rerouting providing less of an offset
Can China's domestic consumers take the place of US ones?
Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side
Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing
Presales ban wouldn’t support home prices much
CAP: Growth slows, but industry still going strong
China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency