EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift. It is plausible that a sizeable portion of the loss in demand from the US could be offset by EMs. But this would require a sizeable exchange rate adjustment to give exporters room to cut prices. And EM governments would not welcome increased Chinese imports in all sectors.
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