Commodities Focus What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will... 23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event US Drop-In: December CPI and the Fed’s 2024 path back to its 2% inflation target 1704985200 Will inflation continue its retreat into 2024? When will the Fed start easing policy, and by how much will it cut rates over the coming year?
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in July suggests that the hit to real incomes from surging prices, along with growing concerns about the Delta coronavirus variant, is starting to take its toll. The... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Consumer Prices (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July indicates that the transitory burst of rising prices linked to reopening is fading and that, after falling to 4.3% from 4.5% in June, core... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Employment Report (Jul.) The stronger 943,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July and upward revision to previous months’ gains indicates that employment growth has shifted into a higher gear and that the drag on hiring from... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics How could Biden reshape the Fed? Whether President Joe Biden chooses to reappoint Jerome Powell or to nominate Lael Brainard to be the next Fed Chair, it is unlikely in itself to have much impact on the near-term outlook for monetary... 5th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Payroll growth to remain elevated With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July. 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics GDP (Q2) The relatively disappointing 6.5% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP, which was well below the consensus at 8.5%, included unexpected declines in government spending and residential investment, and... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
