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Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.)

The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in July suggests that the hit to real incomes from surging prices, along with growing concerns about the Delta coronavirus variant, is starting to take its toll. The upshot is that real consumption growth is likely to slow sharply in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the strong rise in industrial production partly reflected a seasonal distortion which is likely to be unwound in August.

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