US Housing Market Focus Has the mortgage market turned a corner? The weight of evidence suggests that the mortgage market is making a bigger contribution to the housing recovery than some of the most widely watched indicators imply. Combined with the prospect of... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) Although house price inflation rose to 4.7% in March, from 4.4%, the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio suggests that any further pick-up is likely to be short-lived. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed tightening pace dependent on market reaction New York Fed President William Dudley noted last week that the pace of rate hikes will depend a lot on the reaction to the initial lift-off in financial markets. The upshot is that, while there is an... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Strong fundamentals boost housing sentiment A favourable economic backdrop and record low mortgage rates have boosted consumer sentiment, and given households the confidence to think about buying a home. With banks now starting to raise... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) House prices according to the Halifax increased by 0.4% during March, pushing underlying growth to a six-month high. With employment at record highs at the same time as mortgage rates are at record... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales will continue to strengthen Following the weather-related weakness at the start of the year, new home sales surged 7.8% m/m to a seven-year high in February. Existing sales rebounded by 1.2% m/m, despite another large drop in... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The Credit Conditions Survey painted a weak picture of the residential mortgage market, but confirmed that the commercial lending market is improving. While the supply of residential mortgages is... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Construction weakness due to seasonal adjustment failure At first glance, the recent monthly construction spending figures look awful. The three-month-on-three-month growth rate of residential construction spending at least climbed back into positive... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) The construction PMI moved down to 57.8 in March, meaning that it has reversed the gains made over the first two months of the year. Nevertheless, the rise in the future business expectations index to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Do buy-to-let investors have an advantage over other buyers? The ability to deduct mortgage interest before paying tax on rental income does not offer buy-to-let investors an advantage over owner-occupiers. But the fact that investors are not subject to the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Weak data for March show that the mortgage market continues to stagnate. However, although refinancing activity will fade as interest rates rise, the conditions are in place for stronger home purchase... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase increased to a six-month high in February, helped by record low mortgage rates and rising employment. As lenders become more comfortable with the new regulatory... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing will continue to normalise A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Mar.) & Land Registry (Feb.) House Prices The Nationwide reported house prices more-or-less held their ground in March, pushing the annual rate down to its lowest level since September 2013. But the Land Registry reported stronger gains and... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
