UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain upbeat despite asset price falls On the face of it, the recent sharp fall in equity prices and slowdown in the housing market suggest that the significant improvement in consumer confidence seen over the last year might be reversed... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep.) The British Bankers’ Association reported that mortgage approvals dropped in September, leading to the first annual decline in loans for 18 months. But with lenders planning to boost the availability... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What will Labour’s mansion tax mean for prime property values? Labour have now confirmed that their version of the mansion tax would be based around price bands, with homes valued at between £2m and £3m having to pay a flat rate charge of £3,000 per year. In... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The increase in existing home sales in September took sales activity to a 12-month high. Falling mortgage interest rates and a steadily improving labour market bode well for existing home sales from... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The rise in housing starts in September continued the recent volatile pattern whereby a decline in one month has been followed by an increase in the next. But while there has been little underlying... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price growth eases on back of falling demand Housing market activity has cooled considerably over the past few months. A lack of homes available for sale, fears over future increases in interest rates, a drop in mortgage lending following the... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage fees don’t point to future mortgage stress Mortgage fees and charges, whether guarantee fees, mortgage insurance premiums or origination points, have increased in recent years. But fees are not weighing significantly on buyer demand and do not... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreads After blowing out during the financial crisis, mortgage interest rate spreads have been trending down for the past 18 months. As financial markets make further progress towards normality, that process... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Investors and cash buyers pull back The 18% m/m surge in new home sales in August was not enough to outweigh the 1.8% m/m decline in the much larger existing homes market. Strikingly, this decline was due to a weakening in demand from... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) The September RICS survey has once again indicated that demand in the housing market is cooling, particularly in London. But there is tentative evidence that activity levels and price expectations are... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) While the rise of 0.6% m/m in September on the Halifax measure of house prices is perhaps stronger than expected, it remains the case that underlying house price inflation is cooling. With housing... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
