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We believe that the restarts at Alunorte, Becancour and in China will provide additional downward pressure on the price of aluminium. This, coupled with a weak demand backdrop, means that we expect aluminium prices to fall to a three-year low by end-2019 …
8th July 2019
In the last month, a slew of events sparked gold’s strongest rally in nearly three years. We have not changed our long-held view that lacklustre global growth and a tumble in equity markets will keep gold prices elevated for the remainder of 2019. But we …
5th July 2019
The key themes last month were a marked decline in expectations for global growth and a dash for safe-haven assets by investors. Even the recent easing of tensions in the US-China trade dispute has done little to perk markets up. That said, lower supply …
4th July 2019
Despite rising trade tensions and soft demand growth, we think that the price of copper will be resilient in the coming months and rally thereafter due to supply constraints . As we had anticipated, the LME copper price has dropped since mid-April due to …
28th June 2019
The turning point for Indian gold imports is looming Gold imports in India and China diverged in May, as temporary factors propped up consumer buying in the former, while demand in the latter remained sluggish. But we expect import demand for gold in both …
25th June 2019
Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. … The writing is on the wall for Chinese …
20th June 2019
Global aluminium production was unable to shake off its recent malaise in May. That said, lower input costs could offer some support to output this year. But regardless of any supply developments, our view remains that lacklustre demand will send …
There has been a renewed slump in the price of cobalt in recent months, owing in large part to a jump in supply. In this Metals Watch , we explore cobalt’s short-term supply and demand prospects and conclude that the cobalt market is likely to remain in a …
19th June 2019
Iron ore prices have soared on the back of disruptions to supply and strong growth in demand from China’s steel sector. We think that neither will last. Consequently, we expect the price of iron ore to drop by more than a fifth over the remainder of 2019. …
14th June 2019
We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However, we still expect base metals prices to start rising …
11th June 2019
US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. … The US steel price bloodbath is not over …
7th June 2019
The recent escalation in global trade tensions and ongoing weakness in the world economy have led to a sell-off in risky assets, including most industrial metals. In contrast, the price of gold has received a boost owing to a rise in safe-haven demand. …
6th June 2019
The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week. Looking ahead, we expect a faltering US stock market to …
5th June 2019
China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur immediately, it is a credible threat from China and a step …
31st May 2019
The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. … Weak demand to weigh on steel …
29th May 2019
Chinese and Indian gold imports rose sharply in April, in part owing to lower prices. However, our forecast of a rally in the gold price this year suggests that India’s jewellery demand, in particular, will dip. … China and India Gold Imports …
28th May 2019
We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce currently. But we have increased our end-2019 forecast to …
23rd May 2019
Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. … Recent drags on car sales are set to …
22nd May 2019
April’s aluminium production data and the recent closure of Chinese alumina refineries suggest that the rebound in global primary supply growth that we had expected may be postponed. Despite this, we still think that subdued demand will lead to lower …
20th May 2019
Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we expect this upturn to reverse as property sales slow, and …
17th May 2019
Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices this year. … Investor gloom set to …
14th May 2019
A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a subdued global economy, and weak growth in China in …
10th May 2019
The prices of most industrial metals fell over the past month, and were hit particularly hard in recent days by downbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys, and US-China trade talks taking a turn for the worse. But while a full-on breakdown of negotiations …
8th May 2019
While flattered by base effects, a surge in central bank buying and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meant that gold demand grew by a healthy 7% y/y in Q1. While central banks should continue to expand their gold reserves, we think that …
2nd May 2019
Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could benefit from the weak macro-economic backdrop. That said, …
30th April 2019
The strength of global steel production in the first quarter looks unsustainable given that we think global economic activity will remain subdued. What’s more, high iron ore prices are undermining profitability. … Global Steel Production …
29th April 2019
While the latest trade data suggest that Indian demand for gold strengthened further in March, China’s imports remained in the doldrums. Despite the fact that both countries’ imports were probably boosted by some one-off factors in April, we expect …
The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc, have risen. However, we think both of these divergences …
25th April 2019
Power problems and weak prices have held back aluminium output so far this year. But we think that rising capacity and lower raw material costs will cause production to rise in the coming months. … Global Aluminium Production …
23rd April 2019
Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of expectations. … Copper rally: too far, too …
15th April 2019
We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. … Chinese steel prices could drop …
9th April 2019
A tropical cyclone and a burst dam will mean lower iron ore output from the three largest producers this year, which we believe will swing the market into a deficit. In our view, this deficit will prove temporary and prices will drop with recovering …
5th April 2019
The prices of industrial metals generally held on to year-to-date gains in March, due to supply fears coupled with investor optimism around a successful resolution to US-China trade talks. Even if a trade deal is reached, we expect that growth will stay …
3rd April 2019
While dwindling exchange stocks have helped to boost the price of zinc in recent months, we think that prices are set to drop appreciably later this year as increased mine output finally starts to feed through into significantly higher refined output. … …
27th March 2019
Today’s data show that rising Chinese output led to robust global production growth in February, but we think weak demand and high iron ore prices mean that steel mills will cut output sooner rather than later. … Global Steel Production …
26th March 2019
Even looking through the Lunar New Year distortions to China’s imports, the latest trade data still point to very weak gold demand from India and China in February. While China and India’s imports are unlikely to continue at such a low level, we do expect …
Global aluminium production has stuttered so far in 2019, but we think that this will merely be a lull, as new capacity comes on stream and pollution controls end in China. … Global Aluminium Production …
20th March 2019
Despite weaker industrial demand, we expect silver prices to rally by more than 10% this year as safe-haven demand returns and mine production falters. … Silver prices likely to …
19th March 2019
This week Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) announced a recall of almost 1 million vehicles. But even this should be insufficient to prevent palladium or rhodium prices from dropping markedly from current elevated levels. … Emissions drama returns to the …
15th March 2019
Nickel prices have surged since the start of this year, but we think that this leaves the metal particularly vulnerable to the global economic slowdown and higher output. … Nickel set to lose its star performer …
14th March 2019
In stark contrast to recent years, investors have been drawn to platinum so far in 2019. As a result, ETF holdings have risen by more than a sixth in just two months and are rapidly approaching the all-time high set in 2015. This Metals Watch will explore …
12th March 2019
Industrial metals prices have risen robustly this year, but we think that the rally is running out of steam. Even if a US - China trade agreement is reached, a slowdown in global growth and an accompanying rise in risk aversion will send industrial metals …
7th March 2019
Increasing signs of a US-China trade deal prompted a return of risk appetite and led to the prices of many industrial metals hitting multi-month highs and a sell-off in gold and silver. However, even if a trade agreement is reached, we expect global …
6th March 2019
Despite having risen by over a tenth in the past six months, we believe that the upswing in the gold price has further to run. Our forecast of falling equity prices this year suggests strong demand for safe havens, including gold. We have revised up our …
1st March 2019
Today’s data show global steel output stuttered out of the starting blocks at the beginning of 2019 and we expect output growth to remain lacklustre this year. … Global Steel Production …
26th February 2019
January trade data showed that China’s gold imports surged but India’s imports were down on the month. We expect imports from both countries to decline in the months ahead as higher prices deter buying. … China and India Gold Imports …
Global production growth plummeted in January, but given that input costs are falling, we think that output growth will recover later this year. … Global Aluminium Production …
20th February 2019
We have revised up our iron ore price forecast following the disaster at the Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine and its aftermath, given the negative implications for supply. However, with demand set to be lacklustre, we still think that iron ore prices will …
Exchange stocks in most base metals have slumped over the past year. Typically, this is associated with strong demand or weak supply growth, and results in higher metals prices. In this Metals Watch , we explain why we believe that this won’t be the case …
19th February 2019
The price of palladium has reached another record high today, but we remain of the view that this elevated level is unlikely to last. In fact, it is now clear that supply rose strongly in 2018 which, coupled with the current slowdown in car sales, should …
15th February 2019