China weakness to weigh on prices regardless of trade

The prices of most industrial metals fell over the past month, and were hit particularly hard in recent days by downbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys, and US-China trade talks taking a turn for the worse. But while a full-on breakdown of negotiations would undoubtedly be negative for most metals prices, we expect Chinese growth to remain sluggish even if a trade deal is agreed. As such, whether or not trade talks soon get back on track, we think that the prices of most metals will slide further in 2019.