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Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices

Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could benefit from the weak macro-economic backdrop. That said, by 2020, we expect the Fed to be firmly in easing mode and for this to prompt a general pick-up in risk appetite, which is likely to boost the prices of industrial commodities. What’s more, a US-led cyclical recovery in 2021 should provide further fuel to prices.

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