Filtered by Subscriptions: Metals Use setting Metals
The performances of the three main platinum group metals (PGMs) – platinum, palladium and rhodium – have diverged sharply over the past few months. Palladium has seen the biggest gains in the year-to-date, rising by 35%. While the market will remain in …
2nd December 2016
Over the past year, zinc prices have rallied strongly, reaching a nine-year high recently, on the back of mine closures and production cuts. While the refined market will continue to tighten through 2017, we think that the rally in prices will start to …
30th November 2016
It has been a quiet month for stock movements, with the exception of copper. However, the drop in LME copper stocks and surge in Shanghai inventories can be largely explained by price arbitrage opportunities rather than by underlying demand trends. More …
29th November 2016
China’s metals imports remained subdued in October as higher dollar prices and some further depreciation of the renminbi weighed on volumes. … Weakness in China’s metals imports could prove …
25th November 2016
The latest import data out of China and India show a mixed picture for gold demand in the two largest consumers. China’s appetite for the metal appears to have faltered in recent months. In contrast, the measures introduced by the Indian government in …
24th November 2016
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 3.3% y/y rise in global steel output in October, as higher Asian output more than offset lower production at US steelmakers. After a weak start to the year, global production has …
21st November 2016
China’s refinery output continued to grow in October, bolstered by rising prices. However, we think producers are overestimating demand, in which case production could fall back in coming months. … China Industrial Metals Output Monitor …
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.5% y/y in October, boosted by higher y/y production in India, China and Russia. … Global Aluminium Production …
Industrial metals prices were already rising ahead of Donald Trump’s election to the US Presidency, but his victory appeared to provide new grounds for optimism as markets focussed on his plans for fiscal stimulus, in particular infrastructure spending. …
17th November 2016
Right now the decision to nudge up our forecasts for the gold price in the wake of Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential election may not look like a smart one. Indeed, the price of the precious metal could fall further if (a big if) the …
16th November 2016
China’s industrial production held steady in October, but metals-intensive sectors continued to do well and there was a sharp rebound in construction starts. That said, our analysis suggests that the growth in China’s end-user demand alone is not nearly …
14th November 2016
Markets appear to believe that a Trump victory will lead to major infrastructure spending and much more aggressive Fed tightening. As a result, gold prices have fallen. While some fiscal stimulus is likely, we don’t think that it will be all negative for …
11th November 2016
South Africa’s total mine production rebounded in September, led by a sharp increase in PGM output on the back of higher prices. With inventories still abundant and the risk of labour disruptions substantially lower, the recent correction in prices …
10th November 2016
Yesterday, the US dollar price of copper shrugged off the uncertainty created by the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election and rose by another 3%. But while the fundamentals are looking somewhat more supportive, the recent …
In its Q3 Global Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council (WGC) described a pretty gloomy picture for gold demand. Investment was the only exception, as the economic and political uncertainty following the UK’s referendum to leave the …
8th November 2016
The latest data show that central banks increased their gold reserves in September. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 as temporary factors, like Venezuela selling its gold, weighed on net demand. … Central banks …
3rd November 2016
The strength of the US dollar and the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates next month weighed on the prices of most metals, but notably precious, in October. That said, some industrial metals managed to make gains, encouraged by signs of a …
2nd November 2016
The latest import data out of China and India show that demand for gold in the two countries improved in September. We expect buying to have accelerated in October as consumers take advantage of substantially lower prices ahead of the wedding and festival …
27th October 2016
Although the broad measure of China’s industrial production eased back in September, metals-intensive sectors continued to do well. However, we would caution that the recent rallies in the prices of aluminium and steel look increasingly optimistic given …
China’s metals imports remained weak in September as higher prices, supply constraints and stronger domestic output weighed on volumes. … Another weak month for China’s metals …
25th October 2016
We have been positive on the outlook for cobalt prices for some time now but, if anything, prospects are continuing to improve. Ongoing concerns over artisanal mining in the DRC and strong demand from the lithium-ion battery sector should ensure that …
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 2% y/y rise in global steel output in September, slightly stronger than the 1.9% y/y growth a month earlier. After a weak start to the year, global production has now fallen by just 0.5% …
20th October 2016
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.2% y/y in September. However, in a reversal of the trend that has prevailed for much of this year, all the growth came from China. Output in the World ex …
The performance of industrial and precious metals prices has diverged in the last month. Industrial metals have benefited from more positive economic data out of China while precious metals have fallen on renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates …
Exchange stocks of metals have fallen across the board over the past month. In most cases, dwindling mine supply, rather than strong demand, was responsible for the decline. While there might well be unreported stocks, markets appear to be tightening. … …
13th October 2016
South Africa’s total mine production continued to fall in August, but PGM output recovered as miners took advantage of higher prices. Looking ahead, we think there is a risk of supply disruptions in the PGM sector in the coming weeks since the wage …
We don’t pretend to know how the political race in the US will develop or who will eventually win the presidency, but in this Metals Watch we aim to shed some light on the potential impact on metals demand and prices of a victory for Donald Trump. … What …
12th October 2016
The price of nickel has had a good run, but ultimately stocks are high, demand is unexciting albeit solid and supply prospects may improve. As such, we suspect that prices will struggle in the near-term. … Nickel prices on increasingly shaky …
10th October 2016
The latest data suggest that gold buying from the official sector recovered somewhat in August but overall demand in the year to date remains subdued. That said, we think that the case for gold as a strategic reserve asset remains strong. … Central banks …
7th October 2016
Most metals prices have trended higher over the past month, on signs that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year in China is starting to feed through into stronger activity. Precious metals bucked the trend, weighed down by renewed …
4th October 2016
The slump in China’s imports of gold in August has raised concerns about the country’s appetite for the yellow metal. However, the bigger picture is one of relatively robust demand so far this year. With the Golden Week and the Chinese New Year fast …
30th September 2016
Industrial metals prices have profited in the last month from relatively upbeat economic data out of China as well as the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates just yet. We expect China’s economy to continue to benefit from earlier policy stimulus …
29th September 2016
The recent doubling of coking coal prices has been cited as good news for the price of iron ore. However, we think quite the contrary. A supply shock has underpinned the rally in coking coal prices, while the demand profile – the price driver it shares …
26th September 2016
August was another weak month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, lower supply and higher prices have weighed on import volumes. However, relatively soft underlying demand could have also played a part. … China’s metals imports remained subdued in …
22nd September 2016
21st September 2016
Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for August paint a mixed picture of refining activity. While refined copper production was growing strongly, there were sharp downturns in tin and nickel output. However, we think this reflects diverging …
20th September 2016
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output fell by 0.2% y/y in August. So far this year, output in the World ex China has risen, while China’s production has declined. However, August’s data suggest that this …
The ongoing surge in LME copper stocks was the key development last month and contributed to renewed bearish sentiment towards the metal. In contrast, stocks of all the other metals have fallen over the past four weeks. … Rising stocks weigh on copper …
15th September 2016
Iron ore prices have been on a bit of a rollercoaster this year, rising on waves of optimism about China’s demand, before slipping back on persistent growth in supply. In this Metals Watch, we argue that the price of iron ore will struggle to make …
14th September 2016
Metals prices received a boost today as August activity data out of China surprised on the upside. There is now clear evidence that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year is translating into a pick-up in industrial activity. This …
13th September 2016
Since 2010 central banks have become major buyers of gold, accounting on average for about 10% of total gold demand over the past five years. However, demand from the official sector has been lacklustre so far in 2016, prompting some commentators to …
12th September 2016
South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in July, dragged down by yet another fall in PGM output. However, the profitability of the PGM industry has continued to improve owing to higher prices. Looking ahead, with wage negotiations having …
8th September 2016
The silver price has surged this year, together with gold, bolstered by investor demand especially in the wake of the UK Brexit vote. Although prices might give up some of their recent gains when Fed tightening resumes, a recovery in industrial demand …
7th September 2016
A stronger US dollar on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates by the end of the year weighed on the prices of most industrial and precious metals last month. The only metals bucking the trend in August were those with clearly …
5th September 2016
The prices of most metals fell last month, undermined by some strengthening of the US dollar as a result of renewed expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The metals markets largely shrugged off encouraging PMI and …
1st September 2016
The big news in the last month has been a sharp move up in exchange stocks of copper and a renewed slump in tin inventories. However, the bigger picture is that exchange stocks of metals have not moved by much this year. The main exception is stocks of …
31st August 2016
The zinc market has tightened sharply this year mostly owing to mine closures and production cutbacks. While we expect the market to move deeper into deficit next year, we think that there is an increasing risk that higher prices might bring some …
30th August 2016
China’s gold imports resumed their upward trend last month. In contrast, India’s demand remained subdued and this weakness probably has persisted through August. That said, we expect demand from India to recover somewhat in the remainder of the year due …
25th August 2016
Some have argued that a new trade deal between the EU and Indonesia may arrest the decline in the latter’s exports of tin. However, structural issues constraining tin exports mean that it is unlikely that any agreement would provide much of a boost to …
China’s metals imports fell last month. This was not totally unexpected as the strength of imports earlier in the year had seemed at odds with relatively subdued underlying demand. Higher prices for some metals may also have deterred buying. … China’s …
24th August 2016