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Persistently weak demand could force an extension of OPEC production cuts OPEC’s oil production rose sharply in August on the back of higher output quotas. However, if concerns persist about global oil demand, which was discussed at length at yesterday’s …
18th September 2020
Rising OPEC production to limit price gains OPEC production rose in July and the recent introduction of higher quotas means that output will almost certainly continue to increase in the coming months . The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), released …
12th August 2020
OPEC to increase production quotas as it forecasts faster demand growth OPEC production continued to decline in June, largely due to a contraction in Saudi output. However, with OPEC becoming more optimistic on demand, we think that (new) higher quotas …
14th July 2020
Relatively high rates of compliance unlikely to last May saw the latest OPEC production cuts come into force, with compliance among members fairly good. That said, a gradual pick-up in oil prices and demand, together with the prospect of some Libyan …
18th June 2020
Profitability and production at US shale firms has slumped owing to low oil prices We expect US oil output to remain low throughout the rest of 2020 … … but it could start to bounce back in 2021 Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, oil demand has …
21st May 2020
A last hurrah for OPEC output OPEC production jumped up in April, but this will prove a one-off given the agreed output cuts from May onwards. We expect OPEC compliance with the cuts to be fairly good in the coming months as prevailing low prices and …
13th May 2020
OPEC output surge will not last beyond May OPEC production surged in March after talks between OPEC and its allies broke down. While we expect output to remain relatively high in April, OPEC production should be much lower from May onwards following last …
16th April 2020
OPEC output to increase from April OPEC production slumped in February owing to supply disruption in Libya. However, given that the current output agreement expires in March and with no replacement deal, we expect OPEC+ oil production to rise from April . …
11th March 2020
We expect OPEC+ to agree to an emergency output cut of an additional 1m bpd for at least three months at its meeting later this week. This should, at a minimum, put a temporary floor under prices . OPEC and its allies, including Russia, are set to meet in …
4th March 2020
Deeper cuts not a done deal OPEC production fell sharply in January, but this was mainly the result of supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Otherwise, there was little indication in the latest OPEC monthly report that the group will rush to deepen output …
12th February 2020
The risk premium in oil price has fallen in recent years … … despite heightened tensions in the Middle East We expect this premium to remain low as non-OPEC production continues to rise In this Energy Watch , we look at how geopolitical tensions in the …
7th February 2020
After last year’s collapse, a continued decline in the price of European coal is likely Low natural gas prices and a weak economy will weigh on coal prices in the short term And decarbonisation efforts will push down prices in the long term European coal …
24th January 2020
OPEC output to remain low OPEC production fell again in December, led once more by Saudi Arabia. We continue to think that OPEC will maintain its production restraint for the remainder of 2020 to support prices . The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), …
15th January 2020
OPEC likely to tip oil market into deficit early next year OPEC kept output slightly below its quota in November. We expect that OPEC will produce within its new quota until it expires in March 2020, but that Saudi Arabia will do most of the heavy lifting …
11th December 2019
Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that it is already producing well below quota . This could …
6th December 2019
There has been mounting speculation that OPEC+ is set to agree deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, we still think Saudi Arabia’s concerns about its loss of market share, and little appetite for increased cuts in Russia, will win the day. …
4th December 2019
OPEC+ has complied with its output quota so far … … but there is a high chance that it won’t comply in the coming months We think that this makes deeper output cuts less likely There is a high risk that a ramp-up in production in Russia pushes OPEC+ …
25th November 2019
OPEC turns a bit more positive on 2020 OPEC’s November Report, and recent comments by the organisation’s secretary general, suggest OPEC is becoming more optimistic about the prospects for demand for its crude in 2020. This may be an indication that …
14th November 2019
Low production still not enough to lift prices OPEC’s September production data were distorted by the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, but overall output remained subdued. Deeper supply cuts are likely to be discussed at OPEC’s December meeting, but we …
10th October 2019
Saudi Arabia likely to keep oil output low OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices . The OPEC Monthly …
11th September 2019
The hurdle to further production cuts is high While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices . The OPEC …
16th August 2019
We estimate that the new IMO rules will boost crude demand by 0.9m bpd in 2020 But overall growth in demand will remain subdued … constrained by weak global economic activity and sluggish growth in world trade The International Maritime Organization (IMO) …
8th August 2019
OPEC is downbeat on prospects for 2020 OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year, whereas we expect …
11th July 2019
OPEC+ has agreed to rollover its current output quotas for nine months, but weak demand means that we still expect the market to move into a surplus and oil prices to fall by end-2019 . To recap, OPEC and its allies, primarily Russia, today officially …
2nd July 2019
We expect OPEC+ to reaffirm its current output quotas for another six months when it meets next week. The group is likely to justify the move by highlighting high stocks and subdued demand prospects, but the 18% plunge in prices between mid-May and early …
28th June 2019