Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Overview Use setting Commodities Overview
At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appeared bearish for the grains and soybeans markets. However, most of the upward revisions to stocks and supply can be explained by revisions to historical Chinese data. That said, there was still …
9th November 2018
China’s commodity import volumes generally held up well last month, despite the ongoing slowdown in broader economic activity. However, all the signs point to weaker import growth in the coming months. … Import demand proves resilient, for …
8th November 2018
The US is set to take centre stage next week as it re-imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil on Monday. While this may spark bargain hunting, after this week’s slump in prices, any relief rally should be short lived. Indeed, it was announced today that eight …
2nd November 2018
Commodity prices, including oil, fell on concerns about softer economic growth and some appreciation of the US dollar. We expect a weaker demand outlook to continue to weigh on the prices of the more industrial commodities. In contrast, the prices of a …
1st November 2018
The latest survey data out of China paint a subdued picture of economic growth and offer little support to the prices of industrial and energy commodities. What’s more, any policy stimulus to boost activity will take some time to translate into a pick-up …
Concerns about the outlook for demand, amid sharp declines in global equity prices, are weighing on the prices of most commodities. Even the oil market, which has been focussed on supply issues for much of this year, has woken up to the risk of slower …
26th October 2018
The economic slowdown that we expect in the US over the next few years is a key factor in our generally downbeat outlook for commodity prices. … What a US slowdown would mean for …
25th October 2018
Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the missing Saudi journalist will no doubt remain in the …
19th October 2018
Our forecast of slower global growth next year points to weaker growth in commodities demand and lower prices. Of course, the prices of many non-oil commodities have already fallen sharply this year on the back of mounting protectionism and signs of a …
The USDA’s latest projections have not changed our view that ample supply will remain a problem for the grains and soybean markets. That being said, a fall in corn stocks, coupled with the potential for higher US demand, mean that we are relatively more …
15th October 2018
The focus of commodity markets next week is likely to be the raft of data out of China, culminating in Q3 GDP and September industrial output and investment spending on Friday. The September data, in particular, will be scrutinised for further indications …
12th October 2018
The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. … China’s commodity imports holding up …
The latest leg-up in the oil price, to around $85 per barrel, was fuelled by persistent fears of a supply shortfall. However, we remain of the view that the market’s worst fears will not be realised and that prices will drop back over the next 6-12 …
5th October 2018
Commodity prices jumped in the second half of the month despite a stronger US dollar. Concerns about Iranian production and news that OPEC didn’t increase output at one of its technical meetings meant that the energy sub-index significantly outperformed …
2nd October 2018
Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month high. In contrast, signs that China might adopt looser …
1st October 2018
The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to translate into a modest pick-up in activity next year but, …
The price of sugar has dropped sharply in response to a supply glut, making it one of the worst performing commodities so far this year. In this Commodities Watch , we outline some recent trends in the sugar market and explain why we think prices should …
28th September 2018
The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the tariffs will be levied at 10% rather than 25% and the …
21st September 2018
We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. … Copper prices to rise in …
20th September 2018
At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a reflection of the very different starting points and the …
19th September 2018
There was no clear trend in commodity prices this week. The price of oil rose on data showing a sharp fall in US crude stocks, while metals took some comfort from the announcement of new trade talks between the US and China. However, optimism subsequently …
14th September 2018
We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US output growth and persistent concerns about the impact of …
13th September 2018
China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative policy stance, it will be some time before this …
10th September 2018
The prices of most commodities fell this week on persistent concerns about the negative impact of rising protectionism on demand. A softer unofficial August China manufacturing PMI reading on Monday was particularly worrying news for industrial metals as …
7th September 2018
Most commodity prices fell in August on the back of ongoing global trade tensions and worries over an economic slowdown in China. … Oil bucks the negative …
3rd September 2018
China’s PMI readings for August confirm our view that the economy is slowing as a result of subdued domestic demand. Although some policy easing is underway, it will be some time before this translates into an upturn in economic activity and higher …
It was another good week for the price of oil as concerns about lower Iranian output as a result of US sanctions continued to lift prices. In contrast, a ratcheting up of the US rhetoric on protectionism lead to further falls in most industrial metals …
31st August 2018
The price of Brent rose by around 6% this week, reflecting concerns about the negative impact of US sanctions on Iran’s production. The mid-week trade talks between the US and China were inconclusive but expectations were low going into the talks and the …
24th August 2018
US corn farmers face considerable uncertainty over the potential for exports given rising global protectionism. What’s more, if export volumes dip, the US ethanol industry is unlikely to absorb any excess corn in the market. As such, a revival in the …
23rd August 2018
There was no respite for commodities prices this week. Industrial commodities took their cues from the downbeat China activity data which fuelled concerns about demand. At the same time, a stronger dollar, on the back of a deepening crisis in Turkey and …
17th August 2018
After breaking down in April and May, the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices seems to have re-established itself. Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019, commodity prices are unlikely to recover this year. … Dollar …
16th August 2018
As a major consumer of commodities, any slowdown in China’s economy has negative implications for global commodities demand and prices. That said, the impact is actually likely to be quite nuanced. Indeed, we think there is still scope for growth in …
10th August 2018
Despite generally bearish investor sentiment, the prices of a number of commodities rose this week. In particular, the price of aluminium jumped on plant closures in Australia and persistent concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Russia. At the same …
China’s commodity import volumes revived in July, but from a low base a month earlier. Indeed, we think import volumes will fall back in the coming months in line with the slowdown in economic activity. … Strength in China’s imports unlikely to be …
8th August 2018
Most industrial and energy commodity prices fell again this week as mounting protectionism and China’s subdued PMI data for July raised concerns about the outlook for commodities demand. That said, prices did recover some lost ground on Friday in the wake …
3rd August 2018
Commodity prices dropped in the first half of July, despite a slight depreciation of the US dollar. Concerns about trade tensions were the main reason behind the falls. Lower trade volumes would lead to a decline in demand for fuel products such as …
1st August 2018
The latest falls in China’s PMI readings underpin our view that China’s economy is entering a softer patch, which is likely to prevent any significant rebound in commodity prices in the coming months. … China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities …
Concerns about a possible downturn in demand are expected to remain a factor weighing on most commodity prices in the coming months. There are now clear signs that China’s economy has entered a softer patch and the rise in global protectionism could lead …
30th July 2018
Commodity prices rebounded a little this week as the EU and US agreed to hold off on any additional tariffs while trade negotiations are underway. However, prices may struggle to hold on to these gains as this temporary truce could easily fall apart. Next …
27th July 2018
There were further falls in most commodity prices this week as concerns about the negative impact on demand of heightened protectionism dampened investor sentiment. With Donald Trump threatening that tariffs could be imposed on $500bn of US imports …
20th July 2018
For the most part, commodity prices continued to fall this week as Donald Trump stoked the fire of trade tensions by proposing that $200bn of China’s exports to the US would be subject to a 10% tariff. The list of goods, published by the Trade …
13th July 2018
China’s commodity import volumes were markedly lower in June. High prices could have deterred oil imports, while ongoing efforts to combat pollution curbed imports of metals and ores. Crude imports may rebound in the coming months, but we think that …
The recent rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of freight costs is somewhat surprising given rising protectionism. However, it appears that much of the rise can be explained by robust demand for coal. As such, it can’t be interpreted as a sign that fears …
10th July 2018
Almost all commodity prices fell this week as the deadline for the imposition of US tariffs on China loomed large. The tariffs came into effect on Friday, and China retaliated in kind. Also on Friday, a strong US non-farm payrolls number for June …
6th July 2018
We do not think that the latest slump in China’s equity prices will make a meaningful difference to the country’s commodity demand. However, it does suggest that investors are coming round to our long-held view that the economy is set to slow in 2018, …
3rd July 2018
Overview – Most commodity prices fell in June, depressed by escalating trade tensions and a stronger US dollar. Energy prices were the main exception. … Rising protectionism drags on commodity …
2nd July 2018
China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs point to a somewhat softer economy in June. We expect further weakness ahead, which will continue to weigh on the prices of most commodities. … China’s PMIs signal weaker …
Most commodity prices fell this week on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and rising trade tensions between the US and China. The exception was oil, which jumped on the announcement of a new OPEC deal, falling US inventories and concerns that …
29th June 2018
Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade war fade, we expect that the prices of most industrial …
27th June 2018
Most commodity prices fell sharply this week on concerns that the rise in trade tensions between the US and China could spiral into a full-blown trade war. There were particularly sharp drops in the prices of the US agricultural commodities targeted by …
22nd June 2018