Hard to be positive on 2019

Our forecast of slower global growth next year points to weaker growth in commodities demand and lower prices. Of course, the prices of many non-oil commodities have already fallen sharply this year on the back of mounting protectionism and signs of a slowdown in China. However, we think prices have further to fall as the US economy slows next year, but the dollar remains relatively well supported by safe-haven buying. The price of oil looks particularly vulnerable as, in our view, concerns over supply are overdone. In contrast, gold looks likely to benefit as the current Fed tightening cycle ends in mid-2019.