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Upbeat manufacturing data from the US and China bolstered risk appetite this week, helping the prices of industrial commodities record another strong week . However, precious metals prices also did well, as further declines in real interest rates in the …
7th August 2020
A raft of positive Chinese economic data this week offered some support to commodity prices, but concerns about the rise in coronavirus infections in the US and in Latin America prevented any significant gains . Oil prices dipped on news that OPEC will …
17th July 2020
The prices of most commodities rose this week, with the exception of energy . In particular, industrial metal prices rose alongside Chinese equities. Elsewhere, the European economic recovery is starting to look remarkably V-shaped, despite localised …
10th July 2020
Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets . Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after OPEC+ abandoned its efforts to balance the oil market …
13th March 2020
Oil prices closed below $50 per barrel this week for the first time in two years as Russia refused to rollover or deepen OPEC+ output cuts at the latest meeting with OPEC in Vienna. As a result, we will be revising our supply and price forecasts in a …
6th March 2020
The prices of most industrial commodity prices rose this week on hopes that the coronavirus is near to its peak and that economic activity in Asia will start to pick up soon. The announcement of output cuts by several metal producers in China has also put …
14th February 2020
Commodity prices lost ground last week, as the rapid spread of the Wuhan coronavirus has dented China’s near-term growth prospects . Indeed, both oil and base metals prices have fallen 10% from their respective January peaks. While it is impossible to …
31st January 2020
Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal . The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday (which had the potential to be particularly damaging …
13th December 2019
The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week . While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than we had anticipated, we think the drop in supply won’t …
6th December 2019
Commodities prices were little changed this week . Prices were initially boosted by President Trump’s comments that the US and China were in the “final throes” of a trade deal. But they pared their gains as fears emerged that the signing into law of the …
29th November 2019
Commodity price moves were surprisingly muted this week considering the news that the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China may involve the lifting of some of the tariffs already in place . That said, there is still considerable uncertainty …
8th November 2019
This week has been relatively quiet in commodity markets, but there could be some bigger moves in prices in the next seven days given that the Fed meets on Thursday and a raft of economic data is scheduled for release. We think that the Fed will cut …
25th October 2019
Despite the much-vaunted “mini-deal” on US-China trade, most industrial commodity prices fell this week . Uninspiring activity data across major commodity consumers, notably for the US and China, appear to have reignited fears over the health of demand. …
18th October 2019
With little in the way of major economic data releases this week, most commodity prices rose on the back of news that the US and China may agree a “mini deal” as part of ongoing trade talks . This could reduce the immediate risk of a further rise in …
11th October 2019
As the fall-out from the attacks on Aramco began to fade, the spotlight swung firmly back to concerns about global economic activity this week with falls in the prices of most industrial commodities . What’s more, our forecast that economic indicators …
27th September 2019
There was a rude awakening for the oil market last weekend as a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, allegedly backed by Iran, removed around 50% of Saudi capacity . As the dust settled, oil prices ended the week about $5 or 7% higher. We …
20th September 2019
The apparent thaw in US-China trade relations gave most industrial commodity prices a lift, but we have seen these sort of ‘goodwill’ gestures before and doubt that the two sides are any closer to resolving their underlying differences . One commodity …
13th September 2019
Although the prices of most industrial commodities rose this week, we think that a sustained and broad-based recovery is still some way away . A trio of factors were responsible for this week’s rise: news that US-China trade talks will resume in October; …
6th September 2019
While the US-China trade war has continued to escalate, commodity prices have clawed back a little of their lost ground since the trough at the end of last week. This was aided in part by President Trump seeming to strike a more conciliatory tone on …
30th August 2019
Yesterday’s announcement by President Trump that a 10% tariff is to be levied on $300bn worth of Chinese goods came as a shock after reports of “constructive” trade talks between the US and China earlier in the week. While rising protectionism has …
2nd August 2019
Commodity prices have largely been treading water, ahead of some major events next week . The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. A 25 basis points rate cut is already priced into financial markets, but anything more could prompt a …
26th July 2019
We now expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates at the end of this month . However, we only expect a quarter-point reduction in July and only one further cut this year. While lower US interest rates are typically good news for all commodities, there …
19th July 2019
Despite a swathe of news that should have been positive, commodity prices struggled to make gains this week as concerns about global growth continue to weigh on sentiment . Even the strong US employment data on Friday failed to lift the mood, although it …
5th July 2019
