Coronavirus continues to plague commodities

Commodity prices lost ground last week, as the rapid spread of the Wuhan coronavirus has dented China’s near-term growth prospects. Indeed, both oil and base metals prices have fallen 10% from their respective January peaks. While it is impossible to predict when the virus will be brought under control, it clearly poses a downside risk to our expectation of a pick-up in demand for industrial commodities later this year. Given the degree of uncertainty involved, we are not changing our end-year forecasts for now.