Despite the much-vaunted “mini-deal” on US-China trade, most industrial commodity prices fell this week. Uninspiring activity data across major commodity consumers, notably for the US and China, appear to have reignited fears over the health of demand. Regardless of whether President Trump and President Xi end up inking an initial deal, we think that the current slowdown in global economic growth has further to run, which bodes ill for the prices of industrial commodities.
A slew of survey data will be released for the US and euro-zone next week. US flash PMIs for October (Thursday) should be broadly unchanged from September but still point to weak economic growth in the US. Meanwhile, euro-zone flash PMI data (Thursday) and the German Ifo survey (Friday) for October are likely to remain downbeat. Consequently, industrial commodity prices are likely to stay in the doldrums.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services