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Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The labour market is the biggest domestic concern. The …
27th March 2020
Chinese factories were slow to reopen even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday came to end. One week after most of the country officially went back to work on 10 th February, more than half of large industrial firms remained closed. That has now …
28th February 2020
The number of deaths inside China attributed to the new coronavirus is now on course to exceed those from SARS by early next week. The measures taken by the government and the public to limit transmission are having a significant economic impact. …
30th January 2020
China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable: achieving the target would require imports from the US to …
18th December 2019
As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that happening almost since the president announced the …
29th November 2019
The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share of domestically-listed firms. But the recovery was …
30th October 2019
PBOC Governor Yi Gang today appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of imminent monetary easing. He said that the PBOC would not rush to follow the US Fed and ECB in cutting rates and that “China’s monetary policy will maintain its prudent …
24th September 2019
Hong Kong’s GDP is now just 3% of mainland China’s, down from 18% in 1997 when the city returned to Chinese control. But Hong Kong still serves as the main gateway between China and the world where financial flows are concerned. (See Chart 1.) This …
22nd August 2019
Nominal GDP growth and credit growth almost converged at the end of 2018, but the gap between them has widened again this year as growth has slowed and policymakers have shifted their focus away from deleveraging and towards supporting growth. (See Chart …
17th July 2019
Tariffs have weighed heavily on China’s exports to the US in recent months. Shipments of goods in the $50bn list were almost 30% lower in the first four months of 2019 than they were a year before. Exports of goods in the $200bn list, which had been …
25th June 2019
