Tariff impact intensifies

Tariffs have weighed heavily on China’s exports to the US in recent months. Shipments of goods in the $50bn list were almost 30% lower in the first four months of 2019 than they were a year before. Exports of goods in the $200bn list, which had been holding up fairly well last year, have now slumped as well. In contrast, exports to the US of non-tariffed goods have been growing at broadly the same pace as China’s exports to the rest of the world. These will be the next in the firing line if there is a further escalation in the trade war.