China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor Still strong but probably close to a cyclical peak Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Jump in input costs weighing on industry The Q1 industrial profits data published this week were very strong. Net profits continued rise rapidly and are now 50% higher than they were two years ago. Only a third of this is due to higher sales... 30th April 2021 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Population pressures, supply constraints biting There is mounting evidence that supply constraints are feeding price pressures across manufacturing in China. Producer price inflation is about to jump to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the statistics... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Vaccination steps up a gear China’s vaccination campaign has accelerated sharply over the past week. The daily pace of vaccination is now only just short of the five million needed to hit the target of inoculating 40% of the... 1st April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Activity Monitor Uptick in industry nudges up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth holding up surprisingly well Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that economic growth has stabilised in recent months, with stronger construction activity helping to mask a slowdown in other sectors. But with... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Tariff impact intensifies Tariffs have weighed heavily on China’s exports to the US in recent months. Shipments of goods in the $50bn list were almost 30% lower in the first four months of 2019 than they were a year before... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
