We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest of the year haven’t changed: the policy tightening that’s already happened and weaker export demand will result in tepid quarterly growth so that the economy ends this year back close to its pre-virus trend. A point worth noting from the detailed GDP breakdown is the significant role the tech sector has started to play in overall growth. A key unknown is the extent to which the crackdown on the sector could undermine this growth engine.
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