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We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the US. The effects on business confidence and financial …
8th May 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for France’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the US. The effects on business confidence and financial …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Germany’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the Euro-zone economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
7th May 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the UK economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … United …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Italy’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
“Hard” activity data from earlier in the year and a range of business surveys had pointed to a further slowdown in the world economy in the first quarter, but global GDP growth looks to have surprised on the upside. (See Chart 1.) China’s economy fared …
3rd May 2019
A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still likely to control a majority of seats, and parliament’s …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
While composite PMIs have been overstating the weakness of overall economic activity in recent months, manufacturing PMIs have generally maintained a better relationship with the “hard” industrial data. So, the further fall in the global manufacturing PMI …
2nd May 2019
The “hard” data compiled by statistical agencies and policymakers have generally been rather better in advanced economies in the past month or so than the weaker surveys of economic activity. While this reassures us that the global economy is not …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Indonesia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Russia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
1st May 2019
Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than under the Coalition. However, a lot will depend on whether …
29th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for India’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
After a partial rebound at the start of the year, world trade volumes fell again in February – the fourth drop in six months. They look to have recovered a bit in March, and export orders in parts of Asia have picked up. But, overall, the evidence still …
26th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for South Africa’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. …
While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the picture much at the global level, but at the margin it is …
24th April 2019
Hopes for an imminent revival of global growth were brought back down to earth by the latest batch of surveys. Falls in the US and euro-zone composite PMIs suggest that it’s too soon to call a global recovery. … Soft PMIs dampen optimism about a global …
18th April 2019
We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus seems too modest to prompt a sustained and significant …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Korea’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. … Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive …
17th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
16th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Mexico’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Brazil’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre over the coming years. This will make it much harder …
15th April 2019
Compared to previous slowdowns, the recent resilience of labour markets in advanced economies hasn’t been that unusual. While we expect subdued economic growth to take the shine off the performance of labour markets in the coming months, unemployment …
12th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Australia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
10th April 2019
A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with a drop in exports of electricals and materials causing …
9th April 2019
5th April 2019
World GDP growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q1, but the latest business surveys suggest that growth has bottomed out in some parts of the world at least. March’s unchanged global manufacturing PMI masked a stark divergence between the advanced and …
3rd April 2019
Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world, especially if slower growth continues to be …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Canada’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Japan’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
2nd April 2019
It’s still far too early to say for sure, but March’s manufacturing PMIs offer some hope that the worst is over for the downturn in global manufacturing, at least outside the euro-zone. … Global manufacturing downturn starting to bottom …
1st April 2019
The flattening of yields curves over recent weeks has raised fears of a sharp economic slowdown to come. Central banks are unlikely to be led by the views of bond markets, not least because their actions and comments have driven at least part of the …
28th March 2019
The pick-up in world trade in January is little to cheer about. A partial rebound was always likely after the dreadful end to last year. Leading indicators suggest that world trade volumes will remain subdued in the near term, and sluggish global economic …
27th March 2019
Some have warned that the recent inversion of the US yield curve signals that a recession is coming, while others have warned against reading too much into the inversion. Our view is that the answer lies somewhere in the middle; we don’t expect a …
26th March 2019
The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So it still makes sense to have different scenarios for …
22nd March 2019
March’s flash PMIs add to evidence that GDP growth was subdued in the three largest advanced economies in Q1, with Germany continuing to take the brunt of the global manufacturing slowdown. … Manufacturing malaise shows no signs of …
We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic activity has caused some price pressures to emerge, …
20th March 2019
The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more could even open the door to interest rate hikes within the …
15th March 2019
The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next twenty years. Income convergence with the developed world …
13th March 2019
The second defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the UK Parliament has increased the risks to the UK economy by prolonging uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. But for the world as a whole, we still expect the impact of even a no deal Brexit …
In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has further to run, we expect it to resemble a normal cyclical …
World trade weakened much more than we had anticipated last year. As the global economy loses further momentum this year, world trade growth is likely to continue to be sluggish, regardless of whether the US and China broker a lasting deal on tariffs. … …
7th March 2019
World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s decline. But hard data for January have been disappointing …
6th March 2019