Skip to main content

How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China?

Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world, especially if slower growth continues to be accompanied by a declining current account surplus. Even if the surplus rebounds a bit, the impact on the rest of the world should be manageable. That said, given China’s high debt level, there is a risk that its adjustment to slower growth is not a smooth one. Moreover, some countries will find it very challenging to adapt to China’s shift away from investment-led growth.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access