Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation below Norges Bank forecast once again Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting …
10th October 2024
Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting. But how far will the Bank go to ease monetary policy from here, and how quickly will it get there? Our Europe team …
9th October 2024
Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the Riksbank to only cut its policy rate from 3.25% to 2.5% …
While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all the focus on the near-term supply risks to oil, the …
War concerns drive further hawkish tilt at the BoI The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of …
We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a rotation in the shape of GDP growth away from consumer …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. August recovery but prospects for German industry still bleak The big increase in German industrial production in August isn’t much reason to celebrate as it was only enough to …
8th October 2024
Inflation down again September’s drop in inflation in Sweden will reinforce the Riksbank’s inclination to keep cutting interest rates at the next few meetings. Statistics Sweden’s first ever “flash” estimate of inflation revealed that headline CPI …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Retail data highlight weakness of consumer spending Euro-zone retail sales edged up in August but were still below their level in May. The big picture is that overall consumption …
7th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Confirmation house prices rebounded in Q3 The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage …
Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East. The latest ratcheting up …
4th October 2024
Oil spikes, but won’t knock the BoE off course On its own, the jump in oil prices from $72 per barrel (bp) on Monday to a one-month high of $79pb due to the conflict in the Middle East (see here and here ) isn’t enough to have a bearing on how fast the …
France’s prime minister, Michel Barnier, revealed his hand this week – or at least he showed some of his cards – as he set out plans to fill the hole in the country’s public finances. He has given himself a bit more time to bring the deficit down to the …
Easing cycle paused, and cuts in 2025 will be limited The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary …
After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to fill a fiscal hole and support the economy. Our economists were online shortly after Rachel …
This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade. The new Labour government warns of having to clean up a fiscal mess left by its predecessors, but also speaks of investing for long-term economic …
Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another 25bp cut by the ECB at its October meeting. With the …
Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest rates, but the extent of the rise and the fact that it has …
Construction activity rebounds to 2½ year high The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home construction …
The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP. While personal income and corporate tax hikes will help to …
3rd October 2024
The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and stretched speculative positioning. Sterling has dropped by …
After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to drop back again next year and average about 1.5% in …
Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and slightly more favourable demand drivers. That said, there …
Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Tuesday. From a macro perspective, the key risk …
This page has been updated since publication with additional analysis. Sharp drop in inflation will encourage further cuts by SNB The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and …
Stronger-than-expected inflation rules out rate cuts this year The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank (CBRT), and supports our view that a …
Planned austerity would dampen growth The new French government’s plans to tighten fiscal policy by as much 2% of GDP next year would help to put the public finances on a sounder footing but also risk pushing the economy towards recession. It would also …
2nd October 2024
NBP on hold, monetary easing in 2025 will be limited The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) …
One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK activity from such a policy would be small (and perhaps …
Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if an attack materialises – will be its size and whether …
1st October 2024
We now expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp at each of its next four meetings, taking the deposit rate down from 3.5% currently to 2.5% in March. Following Christine Lagarde’s comments to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs yesterday, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Services inflation remains sticky The drop in euro-zone headline inflation below 2% in September should be sufficient to persuade the ECB to cut rates in October, even though …
Overview – We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main influence of the government’s plans to raise public …
PMIs sink in Turkey and Russia The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in Russia will be a concern …
The trouble with European green policy Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness , published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. There were a couple of key points of discussion. First, Mr Draghi emphasised the …
30th September 2024
Germany and Italy HICP (September) Fall in inflation strengthens case for rate cuts The falls in headline and services inflation in the major euro-zone economies in September, along with evidence that price pressures are softening and activity slowing, …
Net lending to property sees further increase as investment recovers Net lending to property reached £1.26bn in August, up from £520m the previous month. While lending to standing assets was responsible for the lion’s share of the increase, lending for …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fading drag on credit from higher interest rates is supporting the economy August’s money and lending data provide further evidence that the gradual improvement in credit demand …
German state data point to sticky core inflation CPI inflation data published by the major German states this morning suggest that headline HICP inflation fell sharply in both Germany and the euro-zone in September, as was widely expected. But core and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Softer rebound in activity, but another major downturn unlikely Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% q/q was a bit weaker than the previous estimate of 0.6% q/q, but the ONS also confirmed …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House prices rise in Q3 and will rise further next year September’s 0.7% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices suggests that August’s 0.2% m/m fall was just a blip and that the …
China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook …
27th September 2024
We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long. That would probably be a wash for the euro. Today’s …
Fiscal risks in Romania continue to build Romania’s fiscal watchdog this week warned that the country’s budget deficit could come in at 8.0% of GDP this year. This is significantly above the government’s original target of 5.0% and also above its new …
Government hinting about more investment The government appears to be laying the ground for a rise in public investment in the Budget on 30 th October. This week the Chancellor said “growth is the challenge and investment is the solution.” That was …
A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. The decision will be a close call, but a cut is far from a foregone conclusion. Our base case remains that the Bank will wait until …
ESIs point to robust growth in Q3 The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations in the services …
Services inflation starting to fall September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. Headline HICP inflation fell …
