Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The crisis in Greece could pose as big a risk to the global economy and financial markets as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in September 2008. In some respects the wider fall-out might even be worse. … Is Greece the next …
28th April 2010
The latest German inflation figures show that, while the economy may be performing much better than the euro-zone’s periphery, core price pressures even there are firmly downward. … German CPI (1st Est. …
This morning’s ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions for business and household lending in the euro-zone remained tight in Q1 2010. With expectations for Q2 much the same, this will continue to act as a drag on both occupier and …
Financial markets across the region have been hit by the latest developments in Greece, but contagion risks are greatest in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. … Assessing the contagion risks from …
With considerable uncertainties over when the joint IMF/euro-zone rescue package for Greece will be implemented, Greece is still dangling from a precipice. If Europe is to pull Greece back up it will have to make funds available swiftly and put a …
27th April 2010
The European economy has shown further signs of recovery in response to the continued improvement in global economic and trade conditions. But the fiscal crisis in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies is casting an ever darker shadow over the medium-term …
Last week’s euro-zone data will have added to hopes that the recovery resumed at the start of this year, following Q4’s stagnation. But concerns about the region’s medium-term prospects remain, with the latest public finances data revealing the borrowing …
26th April 2010
April’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI provides further hope that the recovery is regaining momentum. But with few signs from the hard data that the region’s heavy reliance on external demand is waning, the outlook remains fragile. … Euro-zone …
22nd April 2010
Q1’s easing of credit conditions for commercial real estate in Norway will continue to support the nascent property investment market recovery. The recovery in yields is well underway, but we think that interest rate rises this year could limit the extent …
Greece is in the midst of another hellish week and now faces no choice but to seek to formally activate the European rescue package. While this may help to ease the markets’ frazzled nerves, the latest upward revision to the 2009 budget deficit highlights …
The fading recovery in consumer confidence highlights the fact that retail occupier demand in the Netherlands is likely to remain pretty fragile. And with property-specific supports to headline rental values set to become less important, we suspect that …
21st April 2010
April’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment provides some hope that the recovery has not ground to a complete halt after the economy’s poor start to the year. … German ZEW Survey …
20th April 2010
Worries are growing that the paralysis of European air travel, caused by the volcanic eruption in Iceland, could have a damaging impact on European recovery prospects. But while there is no doubt that it will hit certain sectors hard, the overall impact …
19th April 2010
Despite the firmer details provided on the Greek rescue package, markets have made it crystal clear that they have deep reservations about the bailout. Before even considering lending on more favourable terms, they want to see euro-zone cash in Greek …
On the face of it, March’s sharp rise in euro-zone CPI inflation may look a little alarming. But with a fundamental lack of inflationary pressure in the economy, deflation rather than a surge in inflation is still the greater danger. … Euro-zone CPI …
16th April 2010
Greek bond yields have continued to surge as doubts remain over whether the euro-zone will actually be able to provide financial support to Greece. But a growing worry is that the ongoing crisis prompts Greek households and firms to remove their money …
15th April 2010
The European Commission’s warnings about Portugal’s budget plans are a timely reminder that the euro-zone’s fiscal crisis extends well beyond Greece. … Portugal warnings underline broader fiscal …
14th April 2010
On the face of it, February’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirm that the sector continues to expand at a healthy pace. But there are several reasons why these figures should be treated with a degree of caution. … Euro-zone Industrial …
Opinions on the broader implications of the Greek rescue package for the future of the euro-zone not surprisingly differ widely. But the conditions that made the bail-out necessary will have a profound effect on the region’s economy over the coming years. …
Although the risk from new supply is less than in previous cycles, completions in all the major Western European office markets are likely to push vacancy rates up this year. This will keep rental values under downward pressure. The risk from increased …
With Irish investors having been such big players during the most recent commercial property boom across Europe, there are now concerns (highlighted, for example, in a recent Property Week) that the new Irish National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) may …
13th April 2010
Last week’s further blow-out in Greek bond yields suggests that any slim chances that Greece had of muddling through its crisis on its own have all but evaporated. Some form of rescue - or at least a much stronger promise of assistance - looks likely to …
12th April 2010
While President Trichet sought to reassure markets today that aid would be provided for Greece if necessary, his call for aggressive fiscal tightening there and elsewhere underlined the prospect of only a very modest economic recovery in the region as a …
8th April 2010
February’s 0.6% monthly fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes suggests that occupier demand for retail space is still weak in the single currency region. And given that the occupier market outlook has not yet improved, we think that the correction in …
February’s data on German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales put a dent in hopes that, after stagnating in Q4 last year, the euro-zone economy will have expanded strongly again in Q1. … German Industrial Production & Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The news on the euro-zone continues to be dominated by the fiscal crisis in Greece, which has prompted Greek government bond yields and the cost of insuring against default using credit default swaps (CDS) to rise further. These developments are putting …
7th April 2010
The downward revision to Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures is a reminder of the economy’s fragility. Thankfully, March’s final PMI survey brought further evidence that the recovery resumed in Q1. But the coming fiscal squeeze might mean that any improvement will …
Increased domestic spending in Germany would not only assist the euro-zone’s troubled periphery but would also be in Germany’s own interests, helping to reduce unemployment. However, while there are many ways in which the Government could boost domestic …
Over the next two years, we think that the three European countries with the strongest outlook for industrial rental value growth are Poland, France and Switzerland. By contrast, taking into account the prospects for economic recovery, supply …
6th April 2010
March’s stronger than expected rise in CPI inflation, combined with the recent depreciation of the euro, may ignite fears that inflationary pressures in the euro-zone are beginning to build. But we continue to think that deflation, rather than a surge in …
5th April 2010
The ECB is unlikely to make any major decisions at its April meeting after taking a big step towards phasing out unconventional policy support in March. While the Bank will argue that measures to support the banking sector are now not needed as much as …
1st April 2010
We have cut our forecasts for rental value growth in Greece and Portugal over the next two years by around 6% and 4% respectively. The cuts reflect downgrades to our GDP growth forecasts. Our rental forecasts for Spain, Germany, Austria and Italy remain …
While March’s fall in German unemployment was welcome news, we suspect that renewed rises lie ahead this year as ‘kurzarbeit’ subsidies begin to expire for many workers. However, given that most of these workers are from the hardest hit sectors such as …
31st March 2010
March’s increase in euro-zone HICP inflation related mainly to energy effects and should be short-lived. Indeed, the further increase in euro-zone unemployment in February was another sign that underlying price pressures are non-existent. … Euro-zone …
Yesterday’s announcement of a raft of measures aimed to lift the troubled Irish banking sector from its knees, was an important step towards ending the economic slump. But the economy faces other major headwinds too and it will probably remain locked in …
March’s EC business and consumer survey provides some encouragement that, for now, fiscal worries in the region are not weighing too heavily on overall sentiment towards the economy. But the surveys still point to a pretty sluggish recovery. … Euro-zone …
29th March 2010
The latest news on the euro-zone has been mixed. March’s business surveys brought hope that the recovery has not ground completely to a halt and the agreement of a Greek rescue package was a relief. But medium-term prospects have continued to deteriorate, …
March’s fall in service sector sentiment in France suggests that 2009Q4’s sharp rise in take-up is unlikely to be repeated in 2010Q1. Moreover, with underlying demand also still relatively weak, even if sentiment improves markedly in the near-term, office …
26th March 2010
Along with GDP growth turning negative again in Q4, yesterday’s downgrade of Portugal’s credit rating can be nothing but bad news for commercial property. Even before the downgrade, our analysis suggested that Portuguese property was a little expensive. …
25th March 2010
Q4’s Irish GDP figures, showing the economy still mired in a deep recession, underline the prolonged and painful adjustments likely to be faced by the euro-zone’s fiscally challenged economies. … Ireland GDP …
The deterioration in the growth outlook for the euro-zone adds to the substantial headwinds already facing the recovery in Emerging Europe. We have nudged down our 2011 GDP forecasts for Slovakia and the Czech Republic, in response to a downgrade in our …
We have revised our forecasts for the euro-zone economy down in response to the escalating fiscal crisis and fading prospects of a consumer recovery. The changes strengthen our view that ECB interest rates are on hold for a prolonged period and that the …
February’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting much of a pick-up in broad money and bank lending. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later this year, monetary policy will remain accommodative …
24th March 2010
The recovery in real estate equity prices suggests that capital values in the largest European commercial property markets will rise this year. Indeed, if anything, the risks to our forecasts seem to lie on the upside. However, with much of the recent …
March’s increases in the euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys bring some encouragement that the economic recovery in the region has not ground completely to a halt, but the outlook remains fragile. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo …
Worries about euro-zone fiscal plans have centred mainly on governments’ overly optimistic forecasts for real GDP growth. But weaker inflation could also pose a problem for the region’s public finances, adding to concerns that many governments will …
23rd March 2010
Developments of the past week have brought very little comfort for the euro-zone’s troubled periphery. There has been only limited progress on aid for Greece and the EC has reiterated the need for aggressive fiscal consolidation there and in Spain, …
22nd March 2010
