Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Recent survey evidence suggests that the rental outlook in France is about as bad as it is in Portugal. We agree that the prospects for French rental values are pretty weak. However, the sheer scale of economic downturn that we expect in Portugal over the …
6th February 2012
While European leaders have now agreed to the fiscal compact proposed last year, its terms have been diluted significantly. Meanwhile, their economies have continued to diverge. Most worryingly, while the latest German economic indicators have shown more …
Yesterday’s remarks by Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, have yet again raised the possibility that China may put its financial weight behind international efforts to shore up the euro. We remain sceptical. … China will not bail out euro-zone …
3rd February 2012
While the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged again at its February policy meeting, President Draghi will no doubt use the following press conference to stress the effectiveness of its latest banking support measures. …
The latest euro-zone economic data do nothing to alter our view that the region is set for another tough year, even if policymakers implement further measures to help bring the debt crisis to an end. … E-Z CPI, Final Manu. PMI & ECB Bank Lending Survey …
1st February 2012
The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the southern European economies are still struggling to make further major inroads into their budget deficits. With growth likely to weaken further in the coming months, the task looks set to become even harder. …
31st January 2012
December’s euro-zone unemployment figures revealed a further increase that will add to the downward pressure on consumer spending in the coming months. … Euro-zone Unemployment …
Over the past year, retail rental values have bucked the downward trend still evident in Spanish office and industrial rental values. But data showing that unemployment surpassed the 5 million mark in the fourth quarter and that weak domestic demand …
30th January 2012
January’s improvement in the EC’s euro-zone business and consumer surveys is something of a relief, but the headline index still points to a renewed recession. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) & Spanish GDP …
Worries about the Greek debt deal were offset last week by greater optimism towards Germany. Not only were there further signs of a pick-up in the economy, but Angela Merkel hinted that she would be prepared to sanction a bigger bail-out fund. But even if …
Recent monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending has helped to reduce strains in interbank markets to some extent. However, money and credit growth have weakened further. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
27th January 2012
Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year, as growth drops below the rates needed to sustain …
26th January 2012
The recovery in capital values seen in most euro-zone property markets over the past year or so, looks set to be reversed in 2012. As the economy slides back into a deep recession, occupier demand will contract and rental values will fall. The recession …
The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output than they did in 2008, meaning that many will also …
25th January 2012
As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall, although the IMF’s growth forecasts were revised downwards, …
January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that the economy is holding up relatively well, but activity is nowhere near strong enough to provide a meaningful boost to the euro-zone’s periphery. … German Ifo Survey …
Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably dampen investors’ optimism. Our forecasts assume stock …
24th January 2012
January’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI is certainly an encouraging sign, but the survey still suggests that the region is in recession. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The Greek government appears to be close to agreeing a deal with bond-holders which should both reduce its debt burden and ensure that it gets its second bail-out in time to finance the redemption of some €14bn of bonds towards the end of March. … Greek …
23rd January 2012
All the headline indicators for the German office market, i.e. take-up, vacancy rates and rents, moved in the right direction last year. But we expect the final stages of 2011 to prove to be the high-water mark. With another recession and falls in …
19th January 2012
Media reports suggest that Greece may be on the brink of agreeing a debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors. But while this might reduce the chance of a near-term disorderly default, concerns about Greece’s solvency will remain. … Debt …
January’s sharp monthly rise in the German ZEW index is certainly an encouraging sign, but the index still points to tough times ahead. … German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & Euro-zone Final CPI …
17th January 2012
The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies. The US will be less affected, but we expect its growth …
16th January 2012
Last week’s news on the euro-zone continued the slightly more positive tone of late. Germany and France reiterated their commitment to a new fiscal compact, Spanish and Italian bond auctions were successful, and the euro fell to an 18 month low. But while …
The ECB today maintained both the level of official interest rates and its opposition to calls for it to take more decisive action to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis. … ECB stands firm on bond …
12th January 2012
November’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further evidence that the economy as a whole may have fallen back into recession in Q4. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy in the euro-zone and the US and the likelihood of a …
11th January 2012
Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to quarterly falls in euro-zone GDP of nearly 1%. What’s …
Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for Greece and concession that keeping the euro-zone together …
9th January 2012
Bond investors’ growing preference for German over French sovereign debt is unlikely to be mirrored fully by commercial property investors in 2012. Valuations as well as economic fundamentals suggest that the demand for German property could gain at the …
November’s fall in German industrial production confirmed that the recovery in what had been the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
A new year may have begun, but it has not provided the euro-zone with a fresh start. The latest economic data confirm that the economy remains in a precarious position and the euro has continued to weaken. What’s more, the euro could start to fall more …
December’s fall in the EC survey of euro-zone economic sentiment, together with November’s drop in retail sales and the still high rate of unemployment, confirms that the euro-zone economy is in a very bad state. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemployment …
6th January 2012
After two consecutive cuts in interest rates, the European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to hold fire at its first policy meeting of 2012 on January 12th. And while further interest rate cuts are still possible in later months, President Draghi is likely …
The latest fiscal data add to evidence that the ongoing austerity programmes in Southern Europe have failed to narrow these economies’ budget deficits as quickly as expected. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
4th January 2012
The latest euro-zone inflation and PMI business activity data do nothing to alter our view that the euro-zone is set for another very tough year in 2012. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMI …
The spread between property yields in core and peripheral euro-zone markets has risen fivefold over the past four years. But with the risks both to occupier markets and to the survival of the euro-zone itself still increasing, that spread could very …
3rd January 2012
Recent monetary data have revealed that money and credit growth remain very subdued. The ECB’s latest efforts to improve commercial banks’ liquidity seem unlikely to have a meaningful impact on lending to the wider economy. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators …
With the euro-zone debt crisis ending the year much deeper and broader than it started it, it seems unlikely that the next 12 months will see a repeat of the (just about) “muddling through” process seen in 2011. Rather, 2012 looks like being the crunch …
22nd December 2011
The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone gloom etc. We are sorry to say that, whichever way we look …
21st December 2011
Italy’s Q3 GDP figures add to evidence that the economy has probably already re-entered recession, despite the fact that the fiscal squeeze there has barely started. With the economy set to contract further in 2012, the recent drop in Italian bond yields …
If we are right that all euro-zone member states will fall back into recession next year, commercial property investment volumes in the region are likely to be a major casualty. We would not be surprised if Europe-wide property investment volumes in 2012 …
20th December 2011
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We expect further rate cuts next year as the euro-zone’s woes …
The small rise in the German Ifo index in December was a welcome surprise, but it hardly transforms the outlook for the economy. … German Ifo Survey …
The immediate, mechanical effect of a French credit rating downgrade might not be too severe as it has already been at least partly priced in by financial markets. But it could have disastrous implications for the ability and willingness of the …
19th December 2011
A closer look at the euro-zone policymakers’ new plan to “save the euro” has not altered our view that it will not bring the debt crisis to an end, especially since several key components of the deal already appear to be unravelling. Admittedly, this …
Switzerland does not seem to be awash with vacant industrial property, so the risks of a slump in rental values in this sector over the next year or two are low. But the looming euro-zone recession will be a major blow to the Swiss external sector and …
15th December 2011
The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, buoyant Chinese demand for commodities should not be taken …
The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to freeze, particularly if this led to a re-run of the …
