What next for the euro?

The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy in the euro-zone and the US and the likelihood of a break-up of EMU this year suggest the euro has considerably further to fall. Our end-2012 forecast for the exchange rate remains $1.10.

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