Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. … Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of …
15th March 2017
ECB President Mario Draghi last week reiterated the plan to buy assets throughout this year and keep interest rates at or below current levels for an extended period. But he also explained that additional interest rate cuts or non-standard policies are …
10th March 2017
The final estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with rising energy inflation now weighing on households’ real income growth, we expect the consumer recovery to slow. … Euro-zone GDP Expenditure …
7th March 2017
February’s rise in euro-zone inflation to the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling reflected temporary energy and food effects. With core inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the ECB’s plans to buy assets throughout this year are justified. … …
2nd March 2017
There is a significant chance of populist, eurosceptic parties entering government in Italy. While populists’ chances in Germany, France and the Netherlands are more limited, they may nevertheless take enough seats in their respective parliaments to gain …
1st March 2017
Concerns about higher inflation and potential rises in interest rates have seen bond yields rise in the last few months. Nevertheless, we think the outlook for bond yields and therefore, property yields, is fairly sanguine. This will mean that property …
27th February 2017
Stagnant rental values in the prime Paris retail sector over the past couple of years have seen the view that rental values have reached a ceiling gain momentum. But we believe that the factors which caused the 2011-2015 surge in rents are likely to come …
20th February 2017
Bond yields increased in Q4 and have generally climbed further since. This has meant that, despite a counter-balancing effect from lower equity dividend yields, property yields have begun to look overvalued in a wider range of markets and sectors. … …
17th February 2017
Steady economic growth in Western Europe has been positive for rental growth, helping to support yield falls in Q4. However, in Emerging Europe, the picture is more mixed, with the Czech Republic occupier markets continuing to thrive, while Istanbul has …
13th February 2017
Over the last eight years, the exceptionally loose monetary policy environment in Europe appears to have driven a change in the dynamics of the relationship between prime office yields, risk-free rates and economic activity. In the absence of any major …
10th February 2017
Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is unlikely to be as straightforward as she has been keen …
7th February 2017
The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach parity with the euro later this year. Given the seismic …
6th February 2017
Recent data on the euro-zone’s labour market have been encouraging. December’s decline in the unemployment rate to 9.6% left it at its lowest since May 2009. We expect the labour market recovery to continue this year, albeit at a slower pace. On the face …
1st February 2017
An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5% this year, although a renewed fall in vacancy should then …
January’s PMIs add to the evidence that the Swedish economy has made a strong start to the year. They also suggest that price pressures are building in Switzerland. … Manufacturing PMIs …
Provisional data revealed that the French economy performed fairly well in Q4, while inflation picked up in January. But uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential election looks set to dampen GDP growth in the coming quarters. … France GDP (Q4, …
31st January 2017
January’s rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to a 70-month high suggests that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a positive note. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
30th January 2017
Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a pretty strong footing. January’s Composite PMI remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, while the rise in consumer confidence suggests that households have …
27th January 2017
Commercial property investment across Europe fell last year for the first time since 2009, driven by a large decline in the UK. Yet increased investment in Europe ex-UK and upbeat investor sentiment suggest that property should perform pretty well in …
26th January 2017
December’s labour market data suggest that wage pressures are building in Sweden, supporting our view that the Riksbank will tighten policy this year. But in Norway, despite November’s fall in unemployment, slack remains in the labour market. … Sweden …
On the surface, lower levels of fund-raising in 2016 hint at concerns about pricing at this stage of the cycle. However, in light of tough competition for prime assets and a heightened perception of risk denting demand for secondary assets, we believe the …
24th January 2017
Political and economic uncertainty this year could drive increased volatility in sovereign bond yields in Southern Europe. But in the absence of a sharp and sustained shift higher, we think prime property will still be attractive to investors, though the …
18th January 2017
Following a record 2015, investment activity in Germany slipped a little in 2016. However, prime office yields fell further in Q4, suggesting that investors still see value in the German market. … Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to …
13th January 2017
Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial production edged down in October, timelier national data …
9th January 2017
We expect euro-zone government bond spreads to reach multi-year highs in 2017, with the largest increases in Italy and France, due to rising doubts about their futures in the currency union. … Will euro-zone government bond spreads balloon in …
6th January 2017
As a new year begins and investors focus on key themes and forecasts for the year ahead, we have taken the opportunity to outline some of our key calls for 2017 and the thinking behind them. … Six key calls for European commercial property in …
4th January 2017
December’s rise in euro-zone inflation mainly reflected anticipated energy effects and will therefore not deter the ECB from its commitment to sustained policy loosening. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMIs …
December’s PMIs suggest that Swiss, Swedish and Danish manufacturers ended 2016 on a strong note, but their Norwegian counterparts are still lagging behind. … Manufacturing PMIs …
3rd January 2017
In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with worries about the strength of growth and political …
22nd December 2016
The short-term outlook for euro-zone industry is positive. Surveys suggest that output growth will rise in the coming months and, if sustained, the recent decline of the euro should provide a boost for exporters throughout next year. But with slowing …
16th December 2016
The ECB’s recent announcement of a slower rate of asset purchases is not a sign that the normalisation in euro-zone monetary policy has moved closer. We therefore expect Bund yields to be still close to current levels in two years’ time. That means that …
December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an acceleration of growth is not guaranteed. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
15th December 2016
October’s fall in euro-zone industrial production contrasts with the brighter picture painted by the business surveys. While industrial growth might pick-up slightly in the near term, it is unlikely to prevent a broader economic slowdown in 2017. … …
14th December 2016
The Swiss National Bank will stress after its meeting on 15th December that it is prepared to act decisively to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Indeed, the Bank has already increased its intervention in …
13th December 2016
December’s ZEW survey suggested that investors were not too concerned about the effects of euro-zone political uncertainty on the German economy, although the index still points to a slowdown in GDP growth. … German ZEW Survey …
Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next election. … Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned …
12th December 2016
While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB will continue purchases far beyond 2017 and it will be …
9th December 2016
The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 15th December. Indeed, in October, the Bank repeated its message that “the key policy rate would most likely remain at [0.50%] in the period ahead”. However, we think …
Tight supply and a positive demand outlook point towards a rise in prime German industrial rents. Indeed, we think rental growth prospects are relatively strong compared to the last ten years. … Signs point towards higher German industrial …
October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than business surveys had implied. … French …
Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met and so, like last month, policy will be unchanged next week. As political and exchange rate uncertainty fades next year, concerns that the CBI will continue to miss its inflation target …
8th December 2016
While the ECB announced today that it would slow the pace of its asset purchases from next April, it also committed to buying for longer than anticipated. What’s more, it expressed a clear bias towards increasing the degree of support in future if …
The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an acceleration in GDP growth from Q3’s modest 0.3% q/q. …
The Nordic and Swiss economies generally recorded positive growth in Q3 and look set to do so again in Q4. But with growth in their main trading partner, the euro-zone, set to slow and a number of political risks on the horizon, there are challenges …
7th December 2016
Contrary to popular belief, we think that it has been the strength of the domestic economy, rather than firms relocating to Romania on cost grounds, which has caused prime Bucharest industrial rents to soar. Further solid growth in consumer demand should …
October’s German industrial production and French trade data suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than the business surveys had implied. … German Industrial Production & French Trade …
Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to strengthen, but Treasuries to come under fire. Looking …
6th December 2016
The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with the IMF still unwilling to participate in the bailout, …
After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been encouraging, the eurozone and Japan are doing better than …
The final estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with consumers’ real income growth now slowing as energy inflation rises, spending growth, and thus GDP growth, is set to slow in 2017. … Euro-zone GDP …
