EC slashes forecasts, German recession still possible

The publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission is not normally a market-moving event. But the extent of the downward revisions to its GDP forecasts seemed to take the financial markets by surprise when they were published on Thursday. Next Thursday we will finally learn whether Germany managed to skirt recession last year. Although the Federal Statistics Office suggested Q4 GDP recorded a “small plus” the hard data published so far point to a “small minus”.