Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As has been the case since the start of the pandemic, the …
11th March 2021
Given that the natural vacancy rate (NVR) provides a better gauge of office market conditions than the absolute vacancy rate, we set out to estimate the NVR across European office markets. Future market conditions implied by our NVR estimates are broadly …
Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other major euro-zone economy. Next week’s election should not …
10th March 2021
Slow vaccine rollout casts shadow over 2021 The third estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted a little in Q4 2020, driven by weaker consumer spending. Ongoing restrictions mean that another fall in GDP is likely in Q1, while the …
9th March 2021
With bond and equity dividend yields trending lower, valuations improved in Q4 for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. But in Q1, given the recent bond market rout, valuations are likely to deteriorate. (See Chart 1.) That said, the …
8th March 2021
Swiss franc seems set to fall further Swiss inflation came in below expectations in February (see here ), but the period of deflation is likely to end soon. As elsewhere, the latest manufacturing PMI pointed to rising price pressures from disruption and …
5th March 2021
This week, pressure on bond yields, inflation and national health services continued to build. Daily Covid-19 infections are rising again in Italy and France, and the number of people in intensive care with Covid is increasing in both countries. (See here …
The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine passport offers a lifeline for tourist-dependent …
2nd March 2021
In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns will be lower than in the recent past, but that property …
1st March 2021
Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines from Africa and the East Mediterranean Sea will probably …
22nd February 2021
Following the decline in 2020, we think prime office rents in Amsterdam will hold steady this year. But rental growth should pick up thereafter, supported by continued growth in the information and communication sector, comparatively low rents and the …
17th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the German markets compared to most southern European …
1st February 2021
No sooner had we put the final touches to our quarterly Outlook than some of the downside risks to our forecasts have begun to materialise. Our prediction of a brisk recovery in GDP beginning in the second quarter was based on two assumptions: (i) that …
29th January 2021
Overview – The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle of next year, with Germany getting there …
21st January 2021
Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on prime assets this year, allowing prime office and …
18th January 2021
In contrast to the relentlessly grim epidemiological numbers, the economic data for the euro-zone published this week have been fairly positive. The 2.5% m/m increase in euro-zone industrial production in November points to output rising in Q4, helping to …
15th January 2021
Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn, irrespective of a successful vaccine rollout, the recovery in …
14th January 2021
Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets out these assumptions in more detail and discusses the …
13th January 2021
The number of new coronavirus cases came down in many countries before Christmas as a result of the tighter restrictions in place. But since then, things have taken a turn for the worse. New cases have been increasing at the beginning of the year in …
8th January 2021
The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the end of last year, the number of new virus cases in the …
7th January 2021
We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year. The fortunes of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone …
While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here ), and the uneven start suggests that some countries will make …
Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK) investment in 2020, we think the recovery this year is …
Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. This Update outlines four key developments to watch out for in …
6th January 2021
Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However, the gradual pace at which production is being ramped …
22nd December 2020
US Treasury not on the SNB’s Christmas card list The SNB’s final policy meeting of the year (see here ) was overshadowed by the news on Wednesday that the US Treasury designated Switzerland, along with Vietnam, a “currency manipulator” in its latest …
18th December 2020
The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond yields anytime soon. Beyond then, there is a little more …
10th December 2020
Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable members of society are inoculated, which will probably be …
4th December 2020
A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. As the severity of the pandemic became clear, we argued that …
3rd December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
Falls in alternative asset yields in Q3 meant valuations continued to improve for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. (See Chart 1.) And the backdrop is supportive of property valuations in the coming quarters. Indeed, government …
30th November 2020
Sweden in the limelight It has been a Sweden-centric week, rounded off with a raft of economic data released this morning. The most noteworthy of which was the second reading of Q3 GDP, which was revised up from the initial estimate (+4.9% q/q versus …
27th November 2020
Confidence likely to remain low for a while The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns likely to be …
20th November 2020
The cavalry are coming, but not for a few months We are increasingly optimistic that vaccines against COVID-19 will be distributed at least to priority groups in the first half of next year . There are logistical challenges but they look manageable. (See …
Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the …
19th November 2020
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which would help to reduce the risk of damaging runs on …
17th November 2020
Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best in Germany. The official data only run up until …
The announcement on Monday of Pfizer & BioNTech’s successful trial of their COVID-19 vaccine was unambiguously good news that sent European stock markets earlier this week to their highest levels since early March. The widespread distribution of a highly …
13th November 2020
The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland (see Chart 1.), the rising strain on the healthcare sector in Sweden, and steps taken to contain …
12th November 2020
Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this year, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the US or …
While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in place in many euro-zone countries may be extended, keeping …
10th November 2020
If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support may be just as generous in the short term and be more …
9th November 2020
Downside risks become central forecast This week, the downside risks to our forecasts continued to crystalise. First, the economic data added to the evidence that activity was slowing even before the new lockdowns in Germany and France were implemented. …
6th November 2020
Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly (see Chart 1.) and we suspect that the new restrictions will bring the …
5th November 2020
