Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out

Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However, the gradual pace at which production is being ramped up, and the emergence of the new virus variant, raise the risk that the rebound will start later into Q2 than we have assumed, and from a weaker starting point.