Europe Economics Update High-quality job growth supporting Spanish incomes While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No surge in EZ imports from China this year Fears of an influx of imports from China to the euro-zone this year have not materialised. The volume of imports from China has risen but not at an exceptional pace, and both volumes and values remain... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Ireland’s economy have diminished The risks to Ireland from President Trump’s tax reforms now appear less likely to materialise than they did a few months ago. This, and the recent economic data, suggest the economic outlook remains... 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s inflation rate to fall sharply in 2026 CPIF inflation is set to fall temporarily to around 1% in 2026, largely due to the impact of cuts to VAT on food and taxes on electricity. But the Riksbank is unlikely to cut its policy rate further... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hold steady Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and, despite the recent strong economic data, will continue to say that the policy rate will stay at its current level “for some time to come... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2025) The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggested that mortgage demand in the euro-zone continues to be strong. But households remain reluctant to borrow to boost their... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
