Europe Economics Update Should we be braced for second-round effects? ECB policymakers have pointed to second-round effects in the labour market as a key indication that they would need to tighten monetary policy. As things stand, we suspect that wage inflation will... 20th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs have hit euro-zone exports The front-running of US tariffs gave a small boost to euro-zone exports and GDP last year. But now that the dust is settling, euro-zone exports to the US are significantly lower than they were before... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Which sectors are suffering most from the China shock? The euro-zone has been one of the biggest losers from China eating up a larger share of the global export market. It has lost market share across a wide range of industries including vehicles... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: fiscal risks rising After three years of remarkable stability in Italy, a decline in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s popularity and higher energy prices mean political and fiscal risks are rising again. 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas prices and European competitiveness The increase in European gas prices caused by the Iran war has been much smaller than in 2022 but it will make European industry less competitive compared to the US. Within Europe, it will weigh on... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde prepares the ground for rate hikes While today’s decision to leave the ECB deposit rate at 2.0% was expected, President Lagarde used the press conference to signal that interest rates will rise. Unless there is a big drop-back in... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
