Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in euro-zone services inflation won’t last December’s inflation data add weight to our view that the pick-up in services inflation towards the end of last year was, to coin a phrase, transitory. We expect it to decline in January and trend... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB independence is not at risk The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Digital euro could yet become a reality The chance of the ECB launching a digital euro has risen over the past year. However, it is unlikely to see light of day until 2029 at the earliest and, by design, total holdings are likely to be... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on President Trump and Greenland In light of President Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela and statements that the US should acquire Greenland, this Update answers some key questions about Greenland and the US. 6th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB still neutral on interest rates The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and will probably leave its forward guidance unchanged, saying that it will maintain the current policy rate for some time to come. Norges... 11th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s negative rate reluctance to be tested next year The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation and kept faith that its zero interest policy rate will be sufficient to boost inflation in the medium term. We think it will be less relaxed next... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026 Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update High-quality job growth supporting Spanish incomes While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No surge in EZ imports from China this year Fears of an influx of imports from China to the euro-zone this year have not materialised. The volume of imports from China has risen but not at an exceptional pace, and both volumes and values remain... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
