Europe Economics Update Lower services inflation to prompt more ECB rate cuts Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not done cutting yet Alongside today’s decision to cut the deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, the ECB adjusted its messaging to signal that the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear. We still think that the... 6th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Is the EU backsliding on climate policy? The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How could Europe finance extra defence spending? We think that there is likely to be substantial additional borrowing by European governments in the coming years to fund higher defence spending. This could amount to anything from 0.3% of GDP per... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ negotiated wage inflation will fall sharply this year The decline in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.1% in Q4 last year is likely to be followed by further large falls this year. This is because tax-free one-off wage payments which lifted German... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone underlying inflation easing gradually January’s inflation data show that domestic price pressures are strong but easing. We remain convinced that they will decline much further this year. 24th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ exporters struggling even without higher US tariffs Euro-zone exports have performed poorly for several years and the outlook is poor even if the EU does not get into a trade war with the US. We suspect that US tariffs will be only a small additional... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings 1742482800 Our senior economists hosted a wrap-up of the latest policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, to answer questions from the audience about how the strate
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update High demand to spur construction in southern Europe Booming demand for housing has led to huge price rises in southern Europe over the past few years and will support rapid construction growth for some time to come. Moreover, there is little risk of a... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
