Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Sweden GDP forecast Despite the strong rebound in Q2, Sweden’s economy has fared worse so far this year than many expected. We now forecast it to grow only moderately over the remainder of the year, before returning to... 3rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update French PM's gambit will not end budget stalemate The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either... 26th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth will fall further this year The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ trade surplus down but exports won’t keep falling The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in June as exports to the US dropped. But timelier business surveys suggest that overall goods export growth will pick up in the second half of the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank in no rush to cut again We think the Riksbank is likely to be in wait-and-see mode when it meets next week and will keep its policy rate at 2%. While some of the economic data were underwhelming in the second quarter, they... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs just one of German carmakers’ problems German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish residential property to outperform Europe again Swedish residential total returns have underperformed the European average over the past three years, but a bright rental outlook in particular means we think returns will slightly outperform Europe... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on US tariffs on Switzerland With Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in the US trying to head off the 39% tariff, this note answers some key questions on the topic. Overall, we think Switzerland has limited room to offer... 6th August 2025 · 6 mins read
