Vietnam in Trump’s crosshairs Vietnam has emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war. Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by around 50% since the middle of last year as US demand has shifted away from China towards alternative suppliers. …
28th June 2019
China Trade Expo: Warm words, but few deals likely A high-profile meeting between Chinese and African leaders this weekend is unlikely to result in any significant trade announcements. One key goal of the first China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is to …
NPL ratio drops, but government’s work isn’t done The RBI reported this week that non-performing loans (NPLs) fell from 11.2% of total bank loans in March 2018 to 9.3% in March 2019. This is still extremely high by both historical standards and in …
Would a G20 truce last? The G20 summit kicked off in Osaka today, with Presidents Trump and Xi scheduled to meet tomorrow. Recent media reports suggest that they will agree to restart formal trade negotiations and hold off imposing new tariffs for the …
Dovish RBNZ As expected, the RBNZ kept the official cash rate on hold at 1.50% this week. But given the Bank’s dovish tone and our downbeat forecasts for New Zealand’s economy, we now think the RBNZ will cut rates twice this year. (See here .) Admittedly, …
LDP set to dominate Upper House elections PM Abe’s cabinet announced on Wednesday that the Upper House elections will take place on 21 st July. In April, the LDP lost two seats in the Lower House in by-elections in Osaka and Okinawa. However, it still …
Saudi further opens up to foreign investors The announcement that Saudi Arabia will ease foreign ownership restrictions on publicly-listed companies should go some way to boosting foreign direct investment into the country. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s …
27th June 2019
In a Focus last month, we discussed what we see as the most plausible hard landing scenario for China: troubles at a small bank that spread to the interbank market and trigger a systemic banking crisis. There are disconcerting similarities in the …
21st June 2019
A bad week in the trade war The US and China have been spiraling further apart. President Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on Mexico will have been taken in Beijing as a warning that even a deal with the US doesn’t guarantee better relations – so why …
7th June 2019
The first regulatory takeover of a Chinese bank in more than two decades is a reminder that the balance sheets of many regional lenders are far less healthy than they claim. China’s interbank market mostly shrugged off the move since it reinforced the …
31st May 2019
If strictly enforced, the US decision to ban Huawei from doing business with American firms would be major headache for the company, which accounts for around 0.2% of Chinese GDP. And the move may also make it more difficult for the two countries to reach …
17th May 2019
The government’s plans to make it easier for rural migrants in small cities to acquire urban residency permits have raised hopes of a revival in property sales. But the nationwide impact will probably be marginal unless restrictions in larger cities are …
12th April 2019
Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but probably enough to stabilise growth later this year. …
15th March 2019
Rally in Egyptian pound to be short-lived The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple of years. …
31st January 2019
On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries are benefitting from diverted US demand. One possible …
30th November 2018
The end of the summer in Beijing has brought with it a hardening of views on the trade dispute with the US. Increasingly, tariffs are being seen not as negotiating ploys to win run-of-the-mill concessions from China but as elements of a containment …
31st August 2018
China’s economic recovery has put its air quality targets in jeopardy Urgent remedial action is being taken but this will hit growth in coming months In upcoming events: Economic issues come second to North Korea in Trump visit A crackdown on …
31st October 2017
