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Consumer strength presents a dilemma for the Fed

The Trump administration’s surprise announcement this week that it intended to delay the introduction of the 10% tariff on more than $150bn of finished consumer goods may have saved the Holidays, but it provided only a brief respite for the stock market and couldn’t prevent a further inversion of the yield curve. Battered by news of more economic weakness in Europe and China, the S&P 500 ended the week close to the lows reached earlier this month, when the tariffs were originally unveiled. Those market moves put even more pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to signal at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium that more rate cuts are coming soon.

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