Tankan paints gloomy picture This week’s Q1 Tankan headline indices supported our assessment that Japan’s economy will slip into a mild recession in the first half of this year. The Bank subsequently released the comprehensive data from the survey on …
6th April 2023
The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and consumers are coping with higher interest rates. GDP …
31st March 2023
Strong start to the year begins to flag After an unexpectedly strong start to the year in January, which was mostly maintained in February, the March data will tell us whether that early strength was a temporary weather-related spike or a genuine pick-up …
Copom’s minutes will leave a sour taste for Lula The minutes from last week’s Copom meeting , released on Tuesday, will have dashed any hopes (not least in the government) that policymakers might turn to interest rate cuts any time soon. Three points …
Israel’s legal reforms spark constitutional crisis Israel’s political crisis that flared up earlier this week has since calmed down after PM Netanyahu paused the government’s controversial judicial reforms. While tensions may flare up again and Israel’s …
While there are downside risks from hidden exposures or a sudden loss of confidence and deposits, our sense is that the banking issues won’t escalate significantly further, or spread to UK banks. (See here .) The broad message from this week’s …
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Central banks re-upping the pace of tightening Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all delivered more aggressive interest rate hikes this …
This time last week the markets and financial media were worrying about the future of Deutsche Bank. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz publicly stated that the bank was “very profitable” and President Macron declared that the European banking sector as a …
Less than two weeks have passed since the demise of Credit Suisse so it is too early to draw many lessons about the implications (if any) for the global banking sector. But the speed of the collapse of a bank which had passed the key financial health …
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Korea’s economic outlook remains bleak The latest activity data from Korea were a mixed bag but the economy is likely to feature among the worst …
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi rather than US dollars. The Brazilian branch of ICBC will …
Synthesising the Synthesis Report The main climate-related event of the month – other than the publication of our inaugural Climate Economics Outlook , of course – was the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth Synthesis …
Wage-price spiral still looking unlikely Ahead of today’s deadline for initial submissions to the 2022-23 Annual Wage Review, stakeholders have been haggling over increases to the minimum wage this year. The Australian Council of Trade Unions has backed a …
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Rosneft, IOC deal will keep Russian oil flowing We’ve made the case in much of our research that, in an increasingly fractured global economy that …
BoJ facing dilemma The economic data released this week underline the dilemma facing incoming Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. On the one hand, price pressures continue to strengthen. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 3.1% to 3.4% in the …
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . H2-oh… Droughts in the Middle East and North Africa are becoming more frequent and more severe, with Morocco and Tunisia experiencing them right now. …
30th March 2023
Bolivia walking into a crisis Bolivia’s balance of payments problems entered a more acute phase this week. Commercial banks stopped providing FX to residents, forcing the central bank to do so itself. And there was some doubt (now resolved) whether the …
24th March 2023
Despite the news this week that the population surged by more than one million last year, weak new home sales imply that construction activity will soon fall. That raises the pressure on the government to boost home supply, but there has been little word …
SARB to follow CBN in delivering dovish hike Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think the South African …
As we discussed in our “Drop In” webinar after this week’s Bank of England policy decision (see here ), the 25 basis points (bps) hike in interest rates, from 4.00% to 4.25%, could prove to be the end of the tightening cycle. But it is the data on the …
Russia strengthens China relations after Xi’s visit Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China’s President Xi visited Moscow and the two countries announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped …
The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the side-lines before long. Although the Fed pressed ahead …
Norges Bank and SNB raise rates Undeterred by global banking turmoil, the Norges Bank and SNB focused on inflation this week and – in line with decisions by the ECB, Bank of England and the Fed – raised interest rates. The Norges Bank lifted its policy …
A few key points on Europe’s banks We discussed the recent turmoil in the banking sector in a Drop-in this week. (See here , or you can listen to a shorter version on our podcast here .) The big picture is that there are reasons to be cautiously …
Indonesia reforms – boost to long-run prospects Long-term prospects for Indonesia’s economy received a boost this week when parliament passed a long-delayed series of reforms that should lift competitiveness. The Omnibus Law on Job Creation includes …
Official efforts to curb China’s reliance on imported semiconductors have been going on for years. In 2015, the government set a goal of China being 70% self-sufficient by 2025. But progress toward that target has been much slower than hoped. Only a third …
Labour reforms could encourage more MNCs The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be optimistic further …
No visible uptick in financial risks There have been no signs of stress in Japan’s financial markets as a result of the banking crises in the US and the demise of Credit Suisse. For starters, there hasn’t yet been a spike in the Bank of Japan’s foreign …
The dovish tone of the RBA's March minutes has heightened the risks to our forecast for two more 25bp rate hikes in April and May. However, the Board did reiterate that its decision regarding a pause would hinge on the economic data released before its …
Crisis of confidence at crunch CBE meeting The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision in February to leave interest rates on hold looks to have been a policy misstep and, with inflation surging and growing concerns over the commitment to orthodox policymaking, …
23rd March 2023
The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained low last quarter. But that only delays the pain in …
17th March 2023
After concerns over US regional banks progressed to panic over the health of a Global Systemically Important Bank in Credit Suisse, a sense of calm was returning by the end of this week. No new banks have followed SVB and Signature to the wall, the ECB …
Worries about the health of the global banking system dominated headlines this week after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and concerns about the viability of Credit Suisse. Our coverage of ongoing developments can be found here . In terms of the …
SVB, Credit Suisse and Latin America Concerns about the health of the global banking system following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and problems at Credit Suisse have triggered a sharp-sell off in Latin American financial markets this week …
Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets. (For our full coverage and latest insights, visit our dedicated webpage .) While affected banks may be far away from Sub-Saharan Africa and direct exposures seem limited, the global …
The past week has provided a worrying reminder of the fragility of banking systems to rising interest rates. All our analysis on this can be found on our key themes page . Many metrics of financial market functioning have deteriorated worryingly fast and …
China’s financial system has limited direct exposure to foreign banks. But recent global banking strains still pose some downside risk to the country’s economy. While there are signs that the situation is stabilising, it’s too early to rule out a wider …
As we commented here , Credit Suisse’s problems are in principle a bigger threat to the global economy than those of the regional US banks that failed last week. Its balance sheet is more than twice as large as that of Silicon Valley Bank, for example, …
Limited impact so far All of our coverage of the turmoil in the global banking system can be found on our dedicated webpage . There are also some webinars on the crisis you can listen to on demand. (See here .) For Emerging Asia, the impact has so …
Euro-zone bank equities have come under severe pressure this week after troubles at some US regional banks and at Credit Suisse raised concerns about the health of banking systems more generally. At the time of writing, the Eurostoxx bank index is down …
Limited contagion, but Indian banks a worry Our coverage of the collapse of SVB and the turmoil at Credit Suisse and their implications for the global economy and financial markets can be found on our dedicated webpage . For India, the fallout so far has …
Amid growing concerns about the global economic backdrop , financial markets not only believe that the RBA is done tightening, but that rate cuts are on the horizon. (See Chart 1.) However, we’re not convinced. The latest data don’t yet show domestic …
Global financial risks creeping up The troubles at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have dominated the headlines this week and have further weakened the case for the Bank of Japan ending Yield Curve Control (YCC). Market expectations for the Fed …
The newsflow this week has been dominated by the problems at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse which have raised concerns over the health of the global banking system. If concerns continue to mount, this would pose downside risks to currencies …
16th March 2023
Despite the renewed hawkishness of central bankers elsewhere, the speech that followed the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement this week suggests that the bar to resume rate hikes remains high. Bank still comfortable with its “conditional pause” The …
10th March 2023
Powell in hawkish mood Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed this week that interest rates are set to rise higher than we previously anticipated. Powell noted that the strength of the January activity, employment and inflation data indicated that …
Brazil: is a Q2 rate cut plausible? The prevailing monetary policy story in Brazil so far this year has been one of ‘higher for longer’. We set out such a view recently , the BCB’s communications point this way and analyst expectations have shifted up. A …
The view that interest rates in developed markets may rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated gained further traction this week following US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments on Tuesday. Our US Economics team revised …
SA cabinet reshuffling no magic bullet The new configuration of South Africa’s cabinet, following this week’s reshuffling, is facing high expectations to turn around the power crisis and with it, the economy. But hurdles abound and we doubt that the …
GDP shrank in Q4 (to two decimal places) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4, released earlier this week, strengthened our conviction that the economy will underperform most forecasters’ expectations. The 0.1% q/q expansion in GDP in the fourth …
