Saudi Arabia likely to keep oil output low OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices . The OPEC Monthly …
11th September 2019
We think the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 10bp and introduce tiering next week. More QE is probably on the way too, but may not be agreed until October. The Bank is also likely to further strengthen its forward guidance. After policymakers spelt out …
5th September 2019
The next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports pose a key risk to metals demand While the direct effects across the base metals will vary, tin is likely to suffer most But the indirect effects of an escalating trade war will weigh on metals prices …
29th August 2019
Healthy Q2 GDP growth and at-target inflation to keep Bank on hold next week Downside risks to the outlook have increased Bank to cut interest rates in October We expect the Bank of Canada to present a more dovish policy statement next week, setting the …
28th August 2019
RBA to leave rates unchanged in September But renewed increase in unemployment should prompt the Bank to cut in November Conditions need to deteriorate much further for RBA to launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t learned much on the state of the …
27th August 2019
The hurdle to further production cuts is high While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices . The OPEC …
16th August 2019
Norges Bank to raise rates in September, but this will be the end of the tightening cycle. It is now a question of when, not if, the SNB cuts rates further into negative territory. Expected dovish shift by the Riksbank will ensure that the krona stays the …
8th August 2019
We estimate that the new IMO rules will boost crude demand by 0.9m bpd in 2020 But overall growth in demand will remain subdued … constrained by weak global economic activity and sluggish growth in world trade The International Maritime Organization (IMO) …
The New Zealand economic outlook remains sour… …And the RBNZ have signalled they are ready to act Rates will be cut in August and again in November The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee sounded almost ready to cut rates at its last meeting in June. …
1st August 2019
The RBA will pause in August following back to back rate cuts… …But given the weakness in the economy, the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early 2020 Lowe may be venturing into the world of forward guidance We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a …
31st July 2019
Inflation remains below target, while most hawkish MPC member has stepped down As such, another rate cut is likely next week But aggressive policy easing risks stoking inflation over longer term The MPC – now even more firmly under the control of doves …
Beware of a misleading hawkish signal Key message is that the MPC has become less hawkish, but not as dovish as the markets Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates at 0.75% on Thursday …
25th July 2019
Fed likely to cut rates by 25bp next week, rather than 50bp Economy not yet weak enough to justify additional easing But we expect slowing growth to prompt further cuts in December and March next year The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp next …
24th July 2019
Inflation remains well below target so Bank will pledge to keep rates low for longer Domestic demand set to slow after tax hike and external demand to soften But concerns about financial stability should forestall additional easing We expect the Bank of …
23rd July 2019
The ECB is likely to change its forward guidance to signal that a rate cut is coming... … and it might also add an explicit reference to the possibility of re-launching QE. All this would confirm investors’ expectations that looser policy is on the way. …
18th July 2019
A sharp drop in mortgage rates has boosted activity in the US housing market However, the outlook for lumber-intensive housing starts is not all that bright The latest rally in US lumber prices is therefore likely to unwind After falling sharply over the …
12th July 2019
OPEC is downbeat on prospects for 2020 OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year, whereas we expect …
11th July 2019
Lagarde selection strengthens our conviction of ECB rate cuts and QE to come. Trump’s nominations may be less influential, but lend policy a dovish tilt. Next year’s change of guard at the Bank of England could be meaningful. Recent news about a number of …
Domestic conditions have improved and core inflation is at a seven-year high But the external backdrop has deteriorated and policy rates elsewhere are set to be cut Bank to reduce interest rates shortly after October’s federal election The Bank of Canada …
3rd July 2019
OPEC+ has agreed to rollover its current output quotas for nine months, but weak demand means that we still expect the market to move into a surplus and oil prices to fall by end-2019 . To recap, OPEC and its allies, primarily Russia, today officially …
2nd July 2019
We expect OPEC+ to reaffirm its current output quotas for another six months when it meets next week. The group is likely to justify the move by highlighting high stocks and subdued demand prospects, but the 18% plunge in prices between mid-May and early …
28th June 2019
We expect another cut to 1.0% at the July meeting RBA has indicated that it wants the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% Rates reaching lower bound opens door for quantitative easing We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.0% at …
25th June 2019
