As it stands, the US is set to levy a 15% tariff on roughly $300bn of ‘List 4’ imports from China, of which around half will be introduced on 1st September and 15th December respectively. We had previously incorporated an escalating trade war into our forecasts and flagged that, in contrast to previous bouts of US tariffs on Chinese imports, base metals were especially vulnerable. In this Watch we identify the metals for which any headwinds to demand are likely to be strongest.
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