Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a similar increase in June suggests a change in tack on oil policy towards recapturing market share. This will provide a boost to GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 via higher output in …
15th May 2025
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features …
20th February 2025
Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs thrown its way. Although Canada and Mexico have been granted …
10th February 2025
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) …
15th January 2025
Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) …
8th January 2025
The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts have shifted further to …
28th November 2024
It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the heightened risk premium in prices gradually unwinds. For now, we …
3rd October 2024
OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its voluntary production cuts even more of a close call. On the …
5th September 2024
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year. There will be bigger macro consequences from …
24th April 2024
