Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication . Recovery still shaky China’s economy lost momentum in Q4 according to the official GDP figures. But we suspect that’s because they failed to acknowledge the full …
17th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation now close to 30% y/y, CBN needs to act soon Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. …
15th January 2024
Inflation ends 2023 on a softer note Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect that inflation will continue to ease at the start of this …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . The PBOC fails to deliver Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was …
Fall in inflation won’t be sustained The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to 17.00%) next month. …
12th January 2024
NBR won’t cut rates as far as most expect in 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut as far …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Elevated headline inflation suggests no imminent rate cuts The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Broad credit growth hits 7-month high, but bank lending still weak The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes still due for a pullback China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Deflation set to ease gradually Smaller y/y declines in food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will …
Inflation slowing, but will remain above target until mid-2025 Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is …
10th January 2024
NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus view in recent …
9th January 2024
Sharper-than-expected rise in inflation leaves February rate cut in balance The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regional sentiment continues to recover The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and …
8th January 2024
Entering 2024 on a slightly stronger footing South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view that there …
Headline inflation picks up, but core inflation losing momentum The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think …
3rd January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Factory activity likely to hold up well in 2024 The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that …
Leaving the door open for one more hike Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the next meeting in …
21st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Recovery stalls in November Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis from the post-meeting press statement and press conference. 75bp cuts to continue for the time being The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we …
19th December 2023
Sharp fall in inflation adds to pressure for rate cuts, but caution likely for now The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have …
15th December 2023
Inflation accelerates, pressure mounts on CBN to deliver large rate hikes Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to …
CBR slows down tightening, cycle not yet over Russia’s central bank (CBR) delivered a 100bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting, to 16.00%, and we still think that strong inflation pressures will force another rate hike in Q1. Today’s hike was in line …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Recovery still underway The main bright spot was a healthy pick-up in industrial output thanks to the strength in exports. Retail sales and fixed investment remained …
Rates on hold, February may be too soon for first rate cut Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today and there was no further tilt away from the hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. The likelihood that Banxico will …
14th December 2023
Rise in inflation likely to be short lived Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch, from 1.6% y/y in October to 1.7% y/y in November (see Chart 1), which is still low by the standards of the past two years. And we think disinflation will …
Copom sticking to 50bp cuts The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to lower the Selic rate by 50bp, to 11.75%, was slightly more dovish than the last one from November. But not enough has changed to make policymakers consider …
13th December 2023
Broad based weakness signals a weak end to 2024 September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. But we think that a combination of easing electricity outages and less restrictive fiscal policy will …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . A smaller-than-expected acceleration Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. …
Inflation drops back, but SARB to remain hawkish as core rate rises South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to a slightly lower-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November, but the fresh rise in core inflation reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank …
Economy slowing at the start of Q4 The further softening in Turkish retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the slowdown in the economy continued at the start of Q4. We think it’s possible that GDP contracts outright this …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Elevated food inflation suggests no chance of imminent loosening Headline consumer price inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.6% y/y in November amid a renewed rise in food …
12th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Another 50bp rate cut on the cards tomorrow The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in November, to 4.7% y/y, makes another 50bp interest rate cut (to 11.75%) at …
Sharp fall in inflation, but rates likely to be left on hold next week The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we …
11th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Decline in services inflation a concern CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. The main culprit continues to be food and energy prices – the rate of core …
Price pressures continue to mount The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the case for a 100bp …
8th December 2023
RBI in no rush to loosen policy The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. Against a backdrop of robust economic growth and a renewed rise in food inflation, we doubt the central bank will loosen …
Stubborn services inflation means Banxico to tread slowly with cuts Although Mexico’s headline inflation rate was weaker than expected last month (at 4.3% y/y), uncomfortably strong services inflation supports our view that Banxico’s easing cycle (likely …
7th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes reach new high China’s export values rose year-on-year for the first time since May while the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, supported by exporters …
Easing cycle paused The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the disinflation process likely to stall over the …
6th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Entering a period of softer growth Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first …
5th December 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis, including the release of the UAE's PMI on 6th December. Gulf non-oil sectors cushioning slowdown; Egypt’s economy sputtering along The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa …
Economy contracts, but modest recovery likely in 2024 South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to …
This publication has been updated due to an error in the previous version. Further evidence of easing price pressures The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. …
4th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Further signs that Brazil’s recent outperformance has ended The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very …
1st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Manufacturing activity likely to end the year on a high note The manufacturing PMI survey for November suggests that activity continues to remain strong in Q4. The economy is on …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. India to remain an EM outperformer The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data …
30th November 2023
Disinflation process entering a slower phase The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the central bank …
GDP growth slowing, more to come The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the central bank set to …
Economy showing further signs of overheating Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should keep GDP …
29th November 2023
