Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Decline in services inflation a concern CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. The main culprit continues to be food and energy prices – the rate of core …
11th December 2023
Price pressures continue to mount The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the case for a 100bp …
8th December 2023
RBI in no rush to loosen policy The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. Against a backdrop of robust economic growth and a renewed rise in food inflation, we doubt the central bank will loosen …
Stubborn services inflation means Banxico to tread slowly with cuts Although Mexico’s headline inflation rate was weaker than expected last month (at 4.3% y/y), uncomfortably strong services inflation supports our view that Banxico’s easing cycle (likely …
7th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes reach new high China’s export values rose year-on-year for the first time since May while the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, supported by exporters …
Easing cycle paused The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the disinflation process likely to stall over the …
6th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Entering a period of softer growth Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first …
5th December 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis, including the release of the UAE's PMI on 6th December. Gulf non-oil sectors cushioning slowdown; Egypt’s economy sputtering along The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa …
Economy contracts, but modest recovery likely in 2024 South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to …
This publication has been updated due to an error in the previous version. Further evidence of easing price pressures The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. …
4th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Further signs that Brazil’s recent outperformance has ended The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very …
1st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Manufacturing activity likely to end the year on a high note The manufacturing PMI survey for November suggests that activity continues to remain strong in Q4. The economy is on …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. India to remain an EM outperformer The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data …
30th November 2023
Disinflation process entering a slower phase The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the central bank …
GDP growth slowing, more to come The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the central bank set to …
Economy showing further signs of overheating Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should keep GDP …
29th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fall in headline inflation keeps another 50bp cut on the cards The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in …
28th November 2023
Central bank in “wait and see” mode Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an easing cycle could be …
27th November 2023
Growth pick up is likely to be short-lived Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the naira’s …
24th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . High services inflation will stop Banxico from cutting for now Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is …
23rd November 2023
CBRT delivers another large hike, end of tightening in sight Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Consumption bouncing back The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by …
22nd November 2023
Inflation rises, but SARB will take comfort from weaker core pressures The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet …
Sticking to aggressive easing ... for now The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the disinflation …
21st November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic recovery now underway The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP …
20th November 2023
Israel holds up well in Q3, but sharp drop coming in Q4 The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. …
16th November 2023
Economy overheating, central bank has more work to do The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and …
15th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Struggling for momentum The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, …
Inflation quickens again, putting more pressure on the CBN to act Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to …
Retail recovery helping to offset industrial weakness September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but …
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Note: Join our Drop-In briefing on Thursday 16th November on the Xi-Biden meeting, the fracturing of the global economy, and what this means for Saudi Arabian …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Renewed food price spike the key inflation threat Headline consumer price inflation edged down to a four-month low of 4.9% y/y in October, but that’s already old news given the …
13th November 2023
Economy likely to have slowed sharply in Q3 Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening will take a …
Climbing inflation will keep pressure on the CBR The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise over …
10th November 2023
Banxico remains hawkish, but may be starting to contemplate cuts Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very …
9th November 2023
Higher services inflation to keep Banxico in hawkish mood Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to …
This page has been updated with additional charts and analysis since the first publication. Deflationary returns but is unlikely to persist CPI slipped back into deflationary territory last month. This was mostly due to a drop in food inflation. But core …
NBP pauses easing cycle, interest rates to stay high in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) surprised most analysts in pausing its easing cycle today, and we think that the scope to deliver further interest rate cuts over the coming year is quite …
8th November 2023
NBR yet to show signs of a dovish pivot The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again at 7.00% today, and offered little evidence to suggest it is considering the start of an easing cycle just yet. We currently expect an easing …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Import volumes surpass 2021 peak The year-on-year contraction in export values deepened last month. But this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes were little …
7th November 2023
Inflation eased a touch, peak approaching soon Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s aggressive …
3rd November 2023
CBE stands pat as all eyes turn to post-election meeting The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that …
2nd November 2023
Retail sales continue to boom as industry comes off the boil Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the …
1st November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Another mixed bag of PMIs The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Early sign of manufacturing activity losing momentum The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the …
Another solid quarter, but slowdown awaits Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US weighs on …
31st October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Economy narrowly avoids another contraction Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water in Q3, underperforming most expectations. A jump in investment and a pick-up in …
Recession deepens on the back of voluntary oil production cut Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and …
Sharp fall in inflation, another interest rate cut incoming The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). The decline from …
