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Merchandise Trade (Dec.)

China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable, however, given that exporters can’t slash prices to capture market share indefinitely. Import volumes were underwhelming last month, but we still expect some near-term upside, as fiscal stimulus boosts commodities demand.

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