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This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. The further fall in inflation in June, coupled with signs of economic weakness and a decline in risk premia, prompted the South African Reserve Bank to leave its …
20th July 2023
CBRT underwhelms again, risks to the lira build The 250bp interest rate hike, to 17.50%, by Turkey’s central bank today once again underwhelmed expectations and the slow and steady tightening is pushing the limits on what policymakers can get away with . …
Weakness in May looks set to continue The worse-than-expected South African retail sales figures for May add to the raft of weak activity data and it looks like things may get even worse over the coming months. Coupled with figures earlier today showing …
19th July 2023
Drop in inflation means SARB to stand pat tomorrow The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in June brings it back within the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range for the first time since April 2022 and means that …
Rate hike on the cards, odds (just) in favour of a 25bp move The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. …
12th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. June’s CPI data already old news Headline consumer price inflation came in at 4.8% y/y in June, comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. But that’s already old news …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation plunge seals the deal on an August rate cut The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick …
11th July 2023
Further pressure on the CBE as inflation accelerates to an all-time high This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Egypt’s inflation rate rose from 32.7% y/y in May to a record high of 35.7% y/y in …
10th July 2023
Interest rate cuts coming into closer vision The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 6.75%, but it seems that the balance of the MPC is shifting in a more dovish direction. We expect the first interest rate cut …
6th July 2023
Rates on hold throughout this year Romania’s central bank (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and we think it will keep rates on hold throughout this year. The central bank is likely to be the last in the region to transition to …
5th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and a Chart of the key data. Gulf non-hydrocarbon sectors enter second half of the year with strong momentum June’s batch of PMIs for the region improved almost entirely across the board and the strength …
Lira depreciation starting to feed through Inflation in Turkey fell to 38.2% y/y in June but the impact of the recent sharp fall in the lira is now starting to work its way through. Inflation is likely to rise in July and we think it will end this year at …
PMI falls further, easing price pressures to stay SARB’s hand South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell in June to its lowest level since mid-2021 and remains consistent with declines in output in the sector over the coming months. The survey also shows that …
3rd July 2023
Renewed weakness in CEE industry The batch of manufacturing PMIs for June suggest that Turkey’s manufacturing sector continued to hold up well, but the they provided worrying signs that industrial sectors in Poland and Czechia slipped into a renewed …
ESIs point to weak growth, further disinflation The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth this …
29th June 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic momentum continued in Q2 The industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for May continue a run of strong data showing that activity has recovered this year. …
28th June 2023
Banxico stands pat as inflation drifts lower The further falls in headline and core inflation in recent months prompted Mexico’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, but we doubt that monetary loosening will be …
22nd June 2023
CBRT underwhelms with rate hike, but communications provide room for hope The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. But the communications …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economy continues to struggle May’s industrial production and retail sales data out of Poland were weaker than expected and are consistent with our forecast that GDP growth …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since the post-meeting statement and press conference. Hawkish CNB will turn dovish by year-end The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and the hawkish …
21st June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data. Weaker inflation probably means tightening cycle is over The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the tightening …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. MNB leading the EM cutting cycle Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced a cut to its one-day quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) by 100bp, to 16.00%, today. We …
20th June 2023
We will update the linked webpage with additional analysis during the next hour. Inflation edges up, but should resume slowdown over the rest of the year Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose a touch to 2.8% y/y in May, as an acceleration in non-food …
15th June 2023
Industry struggling to sustain momentum from early 2023 Mexico’s industrial sector expanded by 0.4% m/m in April but this only partially reversed a sharp decline in March and suggests that the economy is struggling to sustain its momentum at the start of …
9th June 2023
Inflation drops, but rate cuts still some time away Headline inflation in Mexico dropped to a 21-month low of 5.8% y/y in May and will continue to decline over the coming months. That said, the strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that …
8th June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Inflation hits multi-year low, but rate cuts still some way off The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in May, alongside the government’s new fiscal framework, has strengthened the …
7th June 2023
NBP remains on pause The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 6.75%, and we think that rates will remain unchanged for at least the next few meetings. While we maintain our forecast that interest rates will be …
6th June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Technical recession dodged, but outlook bleak The 0.4% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 means that the economy once again skirted a technical recession, but the outlook remains bleak. …
Turkish economy’s day of reckoning may now just be around the corner The victory for President Erdogan in Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday is likely to result in a continuation of distortive economic policies and push the economy down a path …
29th May 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Inflation shows broader signs of easing The surprise fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.1% y/y in the first half of May, coming alongside this week’s approval of the new fiscal framework in …
25th May 2023
Hopes for CBRT rate hikes are evaporating Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% again today and, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in pole position to be re-elected as Turkey’s President this Sunday, the probability of much-needed …
MNB inching closer to an easing cycle Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold at 13% as expected today and the post-meeting communications are likely to provide guidance on when the overnight daily deposit rate of 18% will be cut, which …
23rd May 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data. Inflation steady, but should resume its slowdown over the rest of the year Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in April, as an increase in non-food inflation offset …
15th May 2023
Better showing for Erdogan, now in the driving seat for victory Turkey’s presidential election this weekend was incredibly tight and looks to have produced no clear winner, but President Erdogan performed better than recent polls had suggested and this …
Rates on hold, window for cuts this year narrows Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected again today, at 6.75%, and we think there is a small window for rate cuts by year-end. But with core inflation proving sticky and …
10th May 2023
Disinflation process largely on track, rate cuts in 2024 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold as expected today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will keep policy rates unchanged throughout this year. Interest rate cuts are likely to …
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and key chart and table of data. Inflation eases, but another rate hike on the cards next Thursday Egypt’s inflation rate slowed from a near-five-year high of 32.7% y/y in March to 30.6% y/y in April, …
CNB still on pause, but cuts not far away The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, but we think that interest rate cuts are not far away, with policymakers likely to kickstart the loosening cycle in September. …
3rd May 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of key data. Non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf continue to enjoy a strong start to 2023 April’s PMIs for the region showed that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf …
CBR keeps rates on hold, hike still on the table Russia’s central bank maintained its hawkish tone today as it left interest rates unchanged at 7.50% and continued to emphasise pro-inflation risks in the economy. So far these risks do not seem to be …
28th April 2023
Calm before the storm? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% again today, but all eyes are now firmly on next month’s election for a possible change in the stance of monetary policy. Polls are close, but an opposition …
27th April 2023
This report has been updated with an additional table and chart of the key data. Price pressures continue to ease Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 3.0% y/y in February to 2.7% y/y in March as both food and non-food inflation decreased …
13th April 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Credit growth still strengthening Bank loan growth jumped to a 17-month high in March. And broad credit growth rose to its highest since December. Both were stronger …
11th April 2023
RBI unlikely to tighten any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as a surprise and belies the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline …
6th April 2023
Rates on hold, but cutting by year end Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected again today, at 6.75%, and policymakers look set to keep interest rates at this level at the upcoming meetings. But with inflation likely to …
5th April 2023
Rates on hold, policy to stay tight throughout 2023 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold as expected today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will only start to cut interest rates in early 2024, which is later than its regional peers. …
4th April 2023
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Gulf non-oil sectors still leading the pack; Egypt price pressures starting to ease March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors …
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . CBE delivers, but more tightening still needed The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced that it raised interest rates by 200bp, taking the overnight …
30th March 2023
This webpage has been updated with a Table and Chart of the key figures. Stronger services inflation to keep Banxico tightening Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped back by more than expected, to 7.1% y/y, in the first half of March but the further …
23rd March 2023
CBRT keeps rates on hold after one-off cut in February Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% today as policymakers kept monetary conditions loose to support activity after the earthquakes in February. Interest rates are …
