Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Record-low sentiment weighs on demand With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s 11-year high. But …
1st September 2021
House price growth surges to new high, but set for weaker H2 House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier …
31st August 2021
Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not particularly overvalued, inventory close to record lows …
26th August 2021
Supply constraints hold back new home sales After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last …
24th August 2021
Home sales surprise on the upside Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead, we expect sales will …
23rd August 2021
The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the resumption of evictions will not boost the rental vacancy …
19th August 2021
Starts edge back, but set for strong H2 Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts. But falling …
18th August 2021
The housing market is highly cyclical, and the current price boom marks the fifth episode since 1970 where real house price growth has exceeded 5% y/y. But there are good reasons to think this will mark the last house price boom for next 30 years. …
12th August 2021
The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment (See Chart 1.) But the share actually planning to buy has not …
11th August 2021
Housing demand falls further, despite decline in mortgage rates The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are …
4th August 2021
Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR) investment is growing. But given constraints in the home …
3rd August 2021
The second quarter Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey showed market conditions tightening in both the homeowner and rental markets, with vacancy rates at 56-year and 37-year lows respectively. In the homeowner market that will act to constrain …
28th July 2021
House price growth continues to boom, but slowdown on the horizon House prices showed no signs of slowing in May, with annual growth setting new records on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But with housing demand falling back since the start of …
27th July 2021
Supply constraints push new home sales to 14-month low New homes sales dropped for the third month in a row in June, as homebuilders restricted sales in an effort to catch-up with the backlog of homes sold last year. But builders have reported continued …
26th July 2021
Rise in sales to prove short-lived Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this year. As a result, we …
22nd July 2021
Supply shortages to constrain starts Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back construction. But as these …
20th July 2021
Overview – Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic to continue over the remainder of the year. …
15th July 2021
The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make delayed moves, coupled with low vacancy rates, mean …
14th July 2021
There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But once the dust settles, the shift to working from home …
9th July 2021
Housing demand returns to pre-pandemic level Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the …
7th July 2021
Despite mortgage rates seeing little movement in recent months, mortgage applications for home purchase have dropped to their lowest level since April last year. That implies home sales have further to fall. (See Chart 1.) Booming house prices, which …
Overview – With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest …
29th June 2021
House prices are booming, but not in a bubble House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a …
Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive . The price of US lumber (CME random lengths) briefly rose to a record …
23rd June 2021
Elevated construction costs distort sales While new home sales declined in May, data for homes that are yet to start construction were stronger, as elevated construction costs caused homebuilders to delay projects. But with falling lumber prices likely to …
The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels. House prices look far more reasonable when gains in …
22nd June 2021
Slowdown in sales is well under way Record low inventory is weighing on housing market activity, with existing home sales falling to an 11-month low in May. And with booming house prices and rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability, we expect …
The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial crisis have broken the link between home equity and …
17th June 2021
Falling lumber prices to support starts Single-family starts edged higher in May but have been broadly flat since the start of the year. While worsening affordability is now weighing on the demand for homes, record low inventory and falling lumber prices …
16th June 2021
Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental sector in particular. We therefore doubt actual rental …
10th June 2021
Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of over 13% y/y and a rise in mortgage rates since …
8th June 2021
Stretched affordability weighs on housing demand Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some support to …
2nd June 2021
House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening credit conditions on the back of higher house prices, and …
1st June 2021
Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme shortage of cheaper homes for sale, coupled with a jump …
26th May 2021
House price growth regains momentum House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home sales dropped 5.9% …
25th May 2021
Home sales have further to fall Existing home sales recorded another decline in April and are down 13% from the peak last October. Home sales are being constrained by record low inventory, which will continue to weigh on housing market activity in the …
21st May 2021
Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set to ease, tight inventory and accumulated savings will …
19th May 2021
High lumber prices weigh on starts Single-family starts dropped back in April and continue to underperform building permits. This adds to the evidence that high lumber and other material prices are constraining housing starts. But lumber prices are now …
18th May 2021
Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller units. With working from home set to stay even as …
14th May 2021
Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of 12% y/y, and record low inventory, …
12th May 2021
Easing credit conditions won’t stop home purchase demand from falling Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some …
5th May 2021
Stimulus cheques and a lack of opportunity to spend money pushed the saving rate to a record high last year. Some of that saving made its way into down payments, with the average first-time buyer putting down an extra 30% in November compared to a year …
4th May 2021
There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further house price gains mean owners have been reluctant to sell. …
28th April 2021
House price growth to slow to 5% y/y by end-2021 House prices continued to climb in February, with Case-Shiller and the FHFA both reporting growth of around 12% y/y. But while annual growth rates are at record highs on the FHFA measure, month-on-month …
27th April 2021
New home sales surge to 15-year high Following weather-related disruption in February, new home sales jumped in March to close to a 15-year high. A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates this year will weigh on demand to some extent, but the key …
23rd April 2021
Home sales continue journey towards pre-COVID trend Tight inventory pushed existing home sales down to a seven-month low in March. Indeed, the number of homes for sale is at record lows and this will continue to constrain home sales this year. What’s …
22nd April 2021
Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the impact on starts and house prices will not persist. Beyond …
21st April 2021
Overview – After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall back, as recent strong gains in prices …
19th April 2021
Starts bounce back after winter storms Homebuilding recovered quickly from February’s adverse weather, with single-family starts rising to close to a 15-year high. If it were not for constraints on production, including soaring lumber prices, starts would …
16th April 2021
The easing of virus restrictions and return to offices for many white-collar workers will mean that apartment markets in cities such as NYC and Washington D.C. will outperform this year. But we think the longer-term outlook is most favourable in Sunbelt …
15th April 2021
