Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Overview – The apartment market is set for a stellar year. The reopening of cities is bringing vacancy rates down and pushing rents up, and strong investor demand has led to a sharp fall in yields. We expect national total returns of around 19% in 2021. …
1st October 2021
Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home inventory. With foreclosures also resuming, we expect …
29th September 2021
We think that for the extra one million footloose American workers created by the pandemic, the cost of living has become far more important to their decision of where to live than in the past, while the “desirability” of a metro and its climate have also …
28th September 2021
It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the pre-2007 housing boom, meaning that we do not seem to …
House price growth reaches new records Annual house price growth set another record in July as low mortgage rates, past stimulus payments and a tight market drove values higher. But there are tentative signs that the market is beginning to cool, and the …
New home sales rise as supply improves An improvement in inventory helped new home sales rise for the second consecutive month in August. Admittedly, overall housing demand has eased in recent months and a rise in mortgage rates argues against a rebound …
24th September 2021
The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are unlikely to be severe or lasting. For property investors, …
23rd September 2021
Home sales drop back as booming prices shut out first-time buyers Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests …
22nd September 2021
Strong multifamily performance pushes up starts A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported strong …
21st September 2021
After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques, which drove up the saving rate and helped boost …
17th September 2021
Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at odds with rising demand for larger units to accommodate …
14th September 2021
Mortgage rates have been stable at close to record lows since mid-July, but that hasn’t prevented a decline in housing demand. New home sales are down 28% from their peak last year and while existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, the pending …
9th September 2021
Record-low sentiment weighs on demand With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s 11-year high. But …
1st September 2021
House price growth surges to new high, but set for weaker H2 House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier …
31st August 2021
Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not particularly overvalued, inventory close to record lows …
26th August 2021
Supply constraints hold back new home sales After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last …
24th August 2021
Home sales surprise on the upside Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead, we expect sales will …
23rd August 2021
The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the resumption of evictions will not boost the rental vacancy …
19th August 2021
Starts edge back, but set for strong H2 Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts. But falling …
18th August 2021
The housing market is highly cyclical, and the current price boom marks the fifth episode since 1970 where real house price growth has exceeded 5% y/y. But there are good reasons to think this will mark the last house price boom for next 30 years. …
12th August 2021
The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment (See Chart 1.) But the share actually planning to buy has not …
11th August 2021
Housing demand falls further, despite decline in mortgage rates The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are …
4th August 2021
Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR) investment is growing. But given constraints in the home …
3rd August 2021
The second quarter Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey showed market conditions tightening in both the homeowner and rental markets, with vacancy rates at 56-year and 37-year lows respectively. In the homeowner market that will act to constrain …
28th July 2021
House price growth continues to boom, but slowdown on the horizon House prices showed no signs of slowing in May, with annual growth setting new records on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But with housing demand falling back since the start of …
27th July 2021
Supply constraints push new home sales to 14-month low New homes sales dropped for the third month in a row in June, as homebuilders restricted sales in an effort to catch-up with the backlog of homes sold last year. But builders have reported continued …
26th July 2021
Rise in sales to prove short-lived Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this year. As a result, we …
22nd July 2021
Supply shortages to constrain starts Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back construction. But as these …
20th July 2021
Overview – Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic to continue over the remainder of the year. …
15th July 2021
The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make delayed moves, coupled with low vacancy rates, mean …
14th July 2021
There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But once the dust settles, the shift to working from home …
9th July 2021
Housing demand returns to pre-pandemic level Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the …
7th July 2021
Despite mortgage rates seeing little movement in recent months, mortgage applications for home purchase have dropped to their lowest level since April last year. That implies home sales have further to fall. (See Chart 1.) Booming house prices, which …
Overview – With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest …
29th June 2021
House prices are booming, but not in a bubble House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a …
Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive . The price of US lumber (CME random lengths) briefly rose to a record …
23rd June 2021
Elevated construction costs distort sales While new home sales declined in May, data for homes that are yet to start construction were stronger, as elevated construction costs caused homebuilders to delay projects. But with falling lumber prices likely to …
The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels. House prices look far more reasonable when gains in …
22nd June 2021
Slowdown in sales is well under way Record low inventory is weighing on housing market activity, with existing home sales falling to an 11-month low in May. And with booming house prices and rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability, we expect …
The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial crisis have broken the link between home equity and …
17th June 2021
Falling lumber prices to support starts Single-family starts edged higher in May but have been broadly flat since the start of the year. While worsening affordability is now weighing on the demand for homes, record low inventory and falling lumber prices …
16th June 2021
Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental sector in particular. We therefore doubt actual rental …
10th June 2021
Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of over 13% y/y and a rise in mortgage rates since …
8th June 2021
Stretched affordability weighs on housing demand Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some support to …
2nd June 2021
House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening credit conditions on the back of higher house prices, and …
1st June 2021
Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme shortage of cheaper homes for sale, coupled with a jump …
26th May 2021
House price growth regains momentum House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home sales dropped 5.9% …
25th May 2021
Home sales have further to fall Existing home sales recorded another decline in April and are down 13% from the peak last October. Home sales are being constrained by record low inventory, which will continue to weigh on housing market activity in the …
21st May 2021
Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set to ease, tight inventory and accumulated savings will …
19th May 2021
High lumber prices weigh on starts Single-family starts dropped back in April and continue to underperform building permits. This adds to the evidence that high lumber and other material prices are constraining housing starts. But lumber prices are now …
18th May 2021
