End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents

The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the resumption of evictions will not boost the rental vacancy rate. In turn that will support rents, with REIS effective rental growth set to rise to 4.0% y/y by mid-2022. The threat of eviction will also cut arrears which have weighed on CPI rental growth in recent months, helping to close the gap with asking rent measures. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Housing Market Update to clients of our US Commercial Property service.