Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Among the recent weather-hit housing market activity data, the further improvement in the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure picture is a timely reminder that the fundamentals of the housing market are still on the mend. … Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4 …
20th February 2014
The sharp fall in housing starts in January looks like further payback following November’s surge, combined with weather-related disruption. So while 2014 has got off to an unpromising beginning, we think that this year will be a strong one for housing …
19th February 2014
Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason why demand will not pick up as the year progresses. …
14th February 2014
The recovery in housing market activity has taken a knock. Existing home sales edged up in December, but the pending home sales index recorded a worrying slump. New home sales fell substantially in December, and while mortgage applications for home …
13th February 2014
The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in January means that applications have repeated the pattern of falling in one month and rising in the next for six months now. The outlook for home purchase applications is highly uncertain, but on …
5th February 2014
The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And the majority of new ARMs have initial fixed-rate …
4th February 2014
The final CoreLogic house price reading of 2013 showed that house prices rose by 11% last year. But the year-on-year rate of gains softened in the closing months of the year and is likely to weaken further in 2014. … CoreLogic House Prices …
The slight decline in the homeownership rate at the end of last year is a reminder that, even though the housing market is recovering, the share of the population who own their home probably has further to fall. … Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4 …
31st January 2014
Monthly house price inflation has been in the 0.7%-1.2% range since mid-2013, and November was no exception. But the number of locations in the Case-Shiller 20-City index which are seeing a moderation in annual prices gains is increasing. … …
28th January 2014
The large decline in new home sales in December was probably driven by last month’s unseasonably severe winter weather. Sales activity in January is likely to be weak for similar reasons. But we continue to think that new home sales will stage an …
27th January 2014
The subdued level of homebuilding in Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida is primarily a legacy of the glut of cheap, distressed homes which flooded the market during the recession and crowded out homebuilders. Now that this inventory is being worked …
24th January 2014
It’s too early to conclude that the small increase in existing home sales in December marks the end of the weaker period for sales. But the rise looks consistent with a fading of the negative impact of last year’s hike in mortgage interest rates. … …
23rd January 2014
The drop in housing starts in December was more or less in line with expectations and is explained by the surge in housing starts in the previous month and the winter storms in December. We continue to think that the outlook for housing starts in 2014 is …
17th January 2014
The slump in existing home sales has set the recovery in housing market activity back by 12 months. But there are good reasons to think that, like the timelier new home sales series, the decline in existing home sales will prove temporary. … Will …
15th January 2014
The strong 22.7% m/m increase in housing starts in November was an encouraging sign that the rise in mortgage interest rates is not a permanent setback for the homebuilding recovery. This gain echoed the earlier rally in new home sales, which recovered …
10th January 2014
The drop in mortgage applications in December reflects the increase in mortgage interest rates over the past two months. But if the wider economy continues to pick up speed during 2014 as we expect, then mortgage applications should recover. … …
8th January 2014
It’s too early to tell if the marginal dip in the annual pace of house price inflation in November marks the start of the slowdown in price gains that we are expecting. But we are confident that annual price gains will not remain in double-digit territory …
7th January 2014
The further decline in existing home sales to 4.90 million annualised in November, from 5.12 million the month before, reflects the continuing impact of the marked rise in mortgage rates earlier this year. We anticipate a recovery in sales next year, but …
19th December 2013
The strong rise in housing starts in November is an encouraging sign that homebuilders have not been overly spooked by higher mortgage interest rates. And with starts still below the level needed simply to satisfy household formation, there is still …
18th December 2013
The sharp 25.4% m/m increase in new home sales in October reversed the decline during the previous three months and left new home sales back at their level before mortgage interest rates rose. That's an encouraging sign that the hit from higher mortgage …
12th December 2013
The housing market recovery is entering a new phase. The rapid bounce in house prices, which was driven by strong investment buying and tight supply conditions, will soon start to moderate. The recovery will then be characterised by strengthening activity …
11th December 2013
New home sales were still suffering the effects of the rise in mortgage interest rates in September, but fully made up for their earlier weakness in October. In other words, higher rates do not appear to have done lasting damage to the housing recovery. …
4th December 2013
The slight rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in November was not enough to undo earlier falls. But it was a step in the right direction and we expect mortgage activity to pick up modestly over the next year. … Mortgage Applications (Nov …
With the release of the CoreLogic house price index for October it’s clear that the pace of monthly house price gains has accelerated in recent months. But we continue to expect price gains to slow significantly over the next year. … CoreLogic House …
3rd December 2013
National US house prices posted another solid gain in Q3 and are now rising at double-digit rates year-on-year. But this may well mark the peak of annual house price gains. … Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q3 …
26th November 2013
The rise in the foreclosure inventory in New York and New Jersey in the third quarter provides one more reason to think that housing market prospects in these two States are relatively weak. … Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New …
21st November 2013
The further decline in existing home sales in October is the result of the earlier hike in mortgage interest rates. The immediate outlook for existing home sales is negative, but the loosening in supply conditions is to be welcomed. … Existing Home …
20th November 2013
The latest data provide further evidence that housing market activity has come off the boil. Existing home sales declined in September, and the sharp drop in pending home sales points to more falls ahead. Homebuilder confidence also moderated in October. …
14th November 2013
Multi-family construction activity has bounced back strongly since the crash. But the pipeline of multi-family homes under construction does not look particularly large relative to the stock of properties. Moreover, rental vacancy rates are below normal …
13th November 2013
The latest dip in mortgage approvals offers further evidence of a moderation in the rate of the housing recovery. But if the wider economic recovery picks up speed next year as we expect, mortgage applications will follow. … Mortgage Applications (Oct. …
6th November 2013
The homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter of the year. But the recent drop in home sales and mortgage demand, as well as the fact that the rise was driven by older households, suggests that it is too soon to declare a turning point. … …
5th November 2013
The CoreLogic house price index suggests that the recent easing in house price pressures went into reverse during September. But with signs that the rise in interest rates has had a more pronounced impact on activity than we initially expected, this …
The drop in the pending home sales numbers for September suggests that the immediate outlook for existing home sales is weak. We have therefore revised down our whole-year forecasts for 2013. The weaker starting point also means that 2014 will come in …
31st October 2013
The solid rise in the Case-Shiller house price index confounded expectations from some corners that price growth was set to slow further in August. But it does not rule out a slowdown in house price gains later this year and into 2014. … Case-Shiller …
29th October 2013
The steady rise in mortgage interest rates has weighed moderately on mortgage applications for home purchase and total home sales. Any fresh increase in mortgage rates would take a similar toll. While this represents another reason to expect the housing …
21st October 2013
The decline in existing home sales in September was driven by the steady rise in mortgage interest rates seen over the preceding months. If the timelier new home sales figures are any guide, this set-back should be temporary. … Existing Home Sales …
Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed, recoveries in housing starts. … Is homebuilder confidence …
16th October 2013
The Federal shutdown is so far proving to be an inconvenience, rather than a show stopper, for the housing market recovery. But the shutdown may become more problematic if the deadline for raising the debt-ceiling passes without Congress reaching an …
9th October 2013
Mortgage interest rates are declining following the Fed’s decision not to taper in September. But most of the housing data continue to reflect the earlier hike in rates. Housing market confidence has taken a knock. And while home sales rose in August, …
7th October 2013
Mortgage applications for home purchase rose in September, the first gain in three months. This may be an early sign that borrowers are starting to adjust to the higher interest rate environment. … Mortgage Applications …
2nd October 2013
CoreLogic house prices for August paint a picture of a market that is losing some steam. Even so, there is little sign that higher mortgage interest rates are threatening to derail the housing recovery. … CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. …
1st October 2013
New home sales did not fully reverse July’s unexpectedly sharp drop. But August’s data seem consistent with our view that the rise in mortgage interest rates seen over recent months will cool, but not derail the housing recovery. … New Home Sales (Aug. …
25th September 2013
The latest rise in the annual rate of house price inflation in July may be the most eye-catching part of today’s Case-Shiller house price report. But the real story is a welcome slowdown in the underlying rate of house price gains in recent months. … …
24th September 2013
House price growth for new-build homes is set to slow more quickly than price growth for the existing housing stock over the next year, cutting into the price premium attached to a new home. … New home prices set to slow by more than existing home …
23rd September 2013
The further rise in existing home sales in August may reflect a rush of sales from buyers keen to avoid any further rise in mortgage interest rates. … Existing Home Sales (Aug. …
19th September 2013
The small rise in starts in August, which was below expectations and would have been a fall were it not for downward revisions to earlier data, is not as disappointing as it first appears. The figures are skewed by the volatile multi-family sector; …
18th September 2013
The steady increase in mortgage interest rates is now having a more noticeable effect on housing market activity. Mortgage applications for refinancing have more than halved since rates began rising and applications for home purchase are down by 13%. …
11th September 2013
The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale already nudging upwards, and set to rise much further …
9th September 2013
Higher mortgage interest rates took a further toll on mortgage applications in August. But 30-year rates eased a touch at the end of the month, while applications for home purchase increased. … Mortgage Applications (Aug …
4th September 2013
The latest CoreLogic house price reading added to the evidence that the pace of price gains is easing slightly. It’s possible that annual price growth will drop into the single- digit range by the end of the year. … CoreLogic House Prices (Jul. …
3rd September 2013
