Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The homeownership rate edged up in the first quarter of 2017, but a recovery has been held back by the low number of homes available to buy. In turn, the shortage of existing homes is, in part, down to the large number of vacant homes being held back from …
27th April 2017
The pace of house price gains slowed in February according to Case-Shiller, with the smallest month-on-month rise since July last year. But a strong rise in new home sales in March has pushed down further on inventory levels, and therefore we doubt this …
25th April 2017
Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales are unlikely to post further material gains over the …
21st April 2017
Following a dip towards the end of last year, the share of multifamily starts has recovered and builders have become more optimistic towards the sector. Our expectation for a shift toward single-family homes during 2017 may, therefore, be delayed. But, …
20th April 2017
Although larger than expected, the 6.8% m/m drop in starts in March was not significant given the instability of the monthly data. Looking ahead, high home-builder confidence and a chronic shortage of existing homes for sale both point to a steady rise in …
18th April 2017
For the most part, states with strong income growth and low homeowner vacancy rates will see the largest gains in single-family housing starts. The majority of those are in the West, although Florida is a notable exception. However, a high negative equity …
12th April 2017
Housing market activity has been stable since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase and mortgage interest rates are more-orless where they were in December, as are existing home sales. Housing starts have also marked time, …
10th April 2017
As oil prices have seen a modest pick-up, so has employment growth in many energy-producing states. But, given the lags between changes in the labour market and its impact on the housing market, as well as the high levels of vacancy in rental markets …
6th April 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase and refinance, as well as mortgage interest rates, were all stable during March. Indeed, all three have barely changed since the end of last year. Interest rates should resume their upward trend soon but, thanks to …
5th April 2017
Very low inventory levels and steady demand combined to drive up house prices in February. A 0.9% m/m gain after seasonal-adjustment was the fastest rate of growth since April 2013. Anyone looking to buy during the spring will find slim pickings on the …
4th April 2017
The executive order requiring a review of the Waters of the United States rule has pushed homebuilder confidence to a 12-year high. However, the rule has been suspended since its introduction in 2015 and the executive order will do nothing to solve labour …
30th March 2017
A strong labour market, robust consumer confidence and the gradual return of first-time buyers means that the demand for homes will see further gains even as mortgage interest rates rise. But with inventory levels unlikely to improve much over the next …
29th March 2017
House prices made a strong start to 2017, with a 0.6% m/m gain in January. That pushed the annual rate up to a 31-month high of 5.9%. Very tight market conditions suggest that price growth will continue at similar rates for the rest of this year, as …
28th March 2017
Good weather and a lack of existing homes for sale gave the new homes sector a boost in February, generating a robust 6.1% m/m rise in sales. A shortage of cheaper, starter homes will weigh on sales over the next few months. But a strong labour market and …
23rd March 2017
Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5.6% by the end of 2018. We would be concerned, however, …
22nd March 2017
A lack of inventory weighed on existing home sales in February, which contracted by 3.7% m/m. With little chance of a sustained rise in the number of existing homes for sale over the next year, sales are set to tread water even as the demand for homes …
Other things equal, higher Treasury yields means investors will require a higher return from property. Some investors may therefore start easing back on acquisitions, putting downward pressure on prices in the multifamily sector. But with a large part of …
16th March 2017
A rise in single-family construction helped total housing starts edge out a small monthly gain of 3% in February. With homebuilder confidence at a 12-year high, partly down to an expectation that regulations will become less onerous, single-family starts …
Strong employment growth and an expectation that the Fed will hike interest rates at its March meeting have pushed up Treasury yields, meaning that the recent drop in mortgage rates will be short-lived. But thanks to increasing confidence and earnings …
13th March 2017
Low interest rates help to explain the rising the number of vacant homes and the steady fall in the housing inventory in recent years. Rebuilding the inventory will take time, but higher interest rates are likely to be an important part of that process by …
9th March 2017
The recent strength in house prices shows no signs of losing steam, with another strong gain in January according to the CoreLogic measure. With housing demand holding up even in the face of higher mortgage interest rates, and the supply of homes for sale …
7th March 2017
As interest rates rise, one concern is that a reluctance to give up a record low mortgage rate will deter Americans from moving home, restricting sales. But while that may put some households off moving, life events will still happen, and the pay rise …
2nd March 2017
Mortgage rates and applications for refinance were essentially unchanged in February, while the drop in home purchase applications likely reflects an unwinding of the jump in mortgage demand which followed Trump’s win. Meanwhile, the drop in mortgage …
1st March 2017
Annual house price growth reached 5.8% in December according to Case-Shiller, the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With market conditions set to remain tight, as faster income growth supports housing demand, prices are set to make a similar gain this …
28th February 2017
At 3.7% m/m in January, the rise in new home sales came in slightly below expectations. Very wet weather in the West seems partly to blame. The good news is that with inventory levels improving, builders’ confidence high and earnings growth set to …
24th February 2017
Existing home sales in January saw the largest month-on-month gain in nearly a year, to take them to their highest level since early 2007. The post-Trump jump in mortgage applications will have helped sales in January. But that surge in mortgage demand …
22nd February 2017
Homebuilding activity has made a slow start to 2017, with housing starts falling back by 2.6% m/m in January. The jump in homebuilder confidence following Trump’s win has also been gradually unwinding. Nevertheless, with the inventory of existing homes …
16th February 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase held up in January, even as mortgage rates resumed their upward trend. However, inventory shortages are weighing on home sales. The number of existing single-family homes for sale hit a 20-year low in December. …
7th February 2017
The recent strength in house price growth continued in December according to CoreLogic. Prices were estimated to have increased 7.2% in 2016 – the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With inventory levels set to remain low, and housing demand on the up, …
After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase mortgages this year, even as household incomes rise. …
1st February 2017
After reaching a 50-year low in mid-2016, the homeownership rate edged up for the second consecutive time in the final quarter. A lack of inventory is preventing a faster rebound in homeownership. Indeed, despite a slight rise in the latest figures, the …
31st January 2017
Case-Shiller reported that average US house prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, continuing the recent trend of significant gains. With housing demand rising on the back of Trump’s win, and inventory levels at 20-year lows, a further acceleration in house …
New home sales fell further than expected in December, ending 2016 on something of a weak note. But the monthly data are very volatile. And with mortgage applications rising, and housing starts set to increase, we doubt this is a sign that new home sales …
26th January 2017
Existing homes sales dropped back in December, as the lowest level of inventory since records began in 1999 weighed on activity. That shortage of homes for sale also suggests that any boost to housing demand from a Trump fiscal stimulus will primarily …
24th January 2017
Despite an improving economic backdrop, the share of young adults living with their parents increased yet again in 2016. In part, that may reflect the influence of structural demographic factors as Americans delay getting married. But with wage growth …
23rd January 2017
December’s jump in housing starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, implying that homebuilding activity may not be quite as buoyant as it initially seems. But single-family permits reached a nine-year high, supporting our view that it will be …
19th January 2017
As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material shortages currently affecting the homebuilding industry. …
17th January 2017
The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any boost to purchasing power will be higher house prices. As …
11th January 2017
Housing demand was given a short-term boost following Trump’s win, as some buyers brought forward a planned purchase in order to secure a low mortgage rate before they increased further. But with the months’ supply of homes on the market close to a …
9th January 2017
The expectation that mortgage rates are set to continue to rise following Trump’s win helped support mortgage applications for home purchase in December. While that boost will soon subside, faster income growth will outweigh higher mortgage rates in 2017, …
4th January 2017
The recent acceleration in house prices picked up pace in November, with CoreLogic reporting that annual growth exceeded 7% for the first time since May 2014. A spike in housing demand following Trump’s win, and continued low levels of inventory, are …
3rd January 2017
Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a fiscal stimulus also appears to be on the cards next …
16th December 2016
The 18.7% m/m drop in housing in starts in November was largely expected given the surge recorded in October. In any event, the drop was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector. With homebuilders’ confidence rising on the back of Trump’s win, the …
Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those properties, leaving rental vacancy rates broadly unchanged. …
8th December 2016
The sharp rise in mortgage rates following Trump’s win has had differing impacts on mortgage applications for refinance and home purchase. While refinancing activity continued to decline in November, a rush of buyers trying to beat a further rise in rates …
7th December 2016
The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due course, it is clear that the combination of a gentle …
6th December 2016
Trump’s win, and the expected fiscal stimulus that it will generate, has led to a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. In turn, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to its highest level since June 2015. (See Chart.) That has boosted mortgage …
5th December 2016
In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy. Accordingly, stronger GDP and income growth should …
30th November 2016
The 0.8% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in September means prices are on track to meet our forecast for a 6% rise this year. Beyond that, higher mortgage interest rates will take some of the heat out of the market. But with …
29th November 2016
New home sales fell in October, as low levels of inventory continued to bite. And while a rise in housing starts could help, any boost to home sales will take time to manifest itself. … New Home Sales …
23rd November 2016
