The wall will constrain, but not derail, housing starts

As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material shortages currently affecting the homebuilding industry. But a fiscal stimulus will also give a boost to house prices, helping to offset any rise in construction costs. So while Trump’s infrastructure ambitions pose a downside risk, we still expect a steady rise in single-family home starts over the next couple of years.